Delfino et al. (2026) Impact of warming on rainfall changes in damaging Philippine typhoons using high-resolution convection-permitting models

Identification

• Journal: Natural hazards and earth system sciences
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-31
• Authors: Rafaela Jane Delfino, Gerry Bagtasa, Pier Luigi Vidale, Kevin I. Hodges
• DOI: 10.5194/nhess-26-3579-2026

Research Groups

• Institute of Environmental Science & Meteorology, University of the Philippines – Diliman (Quezon City, Philippines)
• Department of Meteorology, University of Reading (Reading, United Kingdom)
• National Center for Atmospheric Sciences, Reading (United Kingdom)

Short Summary

This study investigates the changes in tropical cyclone-associated precipitation in the Philippines under past and future climate scenarios using high-resolution pseudo-global warming simulations. The results show a significant increase in TC precipitation with warming, consistent with Clausius-Clapeyron scaling expectations.

Objective

• Investigate the impact of warming on rainfall changes in damaging Philippine typhoons
• Quantify the thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to TC-associated rainfall changes

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional (Philippines) to global scale
• Temporal Scale: Past (pre-industrial), present, and future climate scenarios (up to 2099)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model version 3.8.1
• Data sources: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 5th generation Reanalysis dataset (ERA5), Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6)

Main Results

• TC precipitation increases significantly with warming, consistent with Clausius-Clapeyron scaling expectations
• Thermodynamic contribution dominates the response under future warming scenarios (∼20%–30%)
• Dynamic contributions are smaller and often act to partially offset the thermodynamic increase

Contributions

• Provides a detailed analysis of the impact of warming on rainfall changes in damaging Philippine typhoons
• Contributes to the understanding of the thermodynamic and dynamic drivers of TC-associated rainfall changes

Funding

• This research was funded by [insert funding agency or project name, e.g., "National Science Foundation (NSF)" or "Climate Change Research Program"]
• Reference code: [insert reference code, if applicable]

Citation

@article{Delfino2026Impact,
  author = {Delfino, Rafaela Jane and Bagtasa, Gerry and Vidale, Pier Luigi and Hodges, Kevin I.},
  title = {Impact of warming on rainfall changes in damaging Philippine typhoons using high-resolution convection-permitting models},
  journal = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.5194/nhess-26-3579-2026},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3579-2026}
}