Thomas et al. (2026) Technical note: Temperature dependence of precipitation tail heaviness in the TENAX model

Identification

• Journal: Hydrology and earth system sciences
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-06
• Authors: Petr Vohnicky, Marco Borga, Nadav Peleg, Francesco Marra
• DOI: 10.5194/hess-30-4957-2026

Research Groups

• Department of Land Environment Agriculture and Forestry, University of Padova, Legnaro, Italy
• Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
• Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
• Expertise Center for Climate Extremes, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
• Department of Geosciences, University of Padova, Padua, Italy

Short Summary

This study investigates the temperature dependence of precipitation tail heaviness in the TENAX model using hourly data from thousands of rain gauges in Germany, Japan, the UK, and the USA. The results show a significant dependence on temperature in many locations, with the majority of stations having negative b values indicating that rarer extremes tend to intensify faster than milder ones.

Objective

• Investigate the relationship between temperature and precipitation tail heaviness using the TENAX model.
• Determine if including this dependence affects the estimates of return levels.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, with a focus on four countries: Germany, Japan, the UK, and the USA.
• Temporal Scale: Hourly data from 10 to 30 years.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: TENAX model, which combines a Weibull distribution with an exponential temperature dependence in the scale parameter.
• Data sources: Global sub-daily rainfall (GSDR) dataset and ERA5-land reanalysis dataset.

Main Results

• The shape parameter shows a significant dependence on temperature in many locations, with negative b values indicating that rarer extremes tend to intensify faster than milder ones.
• Including this dependence affects the estimates of return levels, especially at longer return periods.
• The variation in estimated return levels is highest when b is negative.

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the temperature dependence of precipitation tail heaviness and its impact on return level estimates using the TENAX model.
• The results highlight the importance of considering this dependence when predicting extreme precipitation events.

Funding

• Not specified.

Citation

@article{Thomas2026Technical,
  author = {Thomas, Ella and Vohnicky, Petr and Borga, Marco and Peleg, Nadav and Marra, Francesco},
  title = {Technical note: Temperature dependence of precipitation tail heaviness in the TENAX model},
  journal = {Hydrology and earth system sciences},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.5194/hess-30-4957-2026},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-4957-2026}
}