Schneider et al. (2026) Drought dynamics across the hydrological cycle – an extensive validation of the National Hydrological Model of Denmark

Identification

• Journal: Hydrology and earth system sciences
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-06-29
• Authors: Raphael Johannes Maria Schneider, Simon Stisen, Mark F. T. Hansen, Mie Andreasen, Bertel Nilsson, Klaus Hinsby, Hans Jørgen Henriksen, Ida Karlsson Seidenfaden
• DOI: 10.5194/hess-30-4019-2026

Research Groups

• Department of Hydrology, Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), 1350 Copenhagen, Denmark
• Brockmann Consult GmbH, 21029 Hamburg, Germany

Short Summary

This study evaluates the National Hydrological Model of Denmark's ability to simulate drought indices across multiple compartments of the hydrological cycle. The model is validated using a comprehensive observational dataset covering soil moisture, streamflow, and groundwater levels.

Objective

• To assess whether the integrated, physically based DK-model can accurately reproduce the complex dynamics of drought and its propagation from meteorological drought to soil moisture, streamflow, and groundwater.
• To evaluate the model's potential for drought analysis, monitoring, and forecasting.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Nationwide coverage of Denmark at 500 or 100 m horizontal resolution.
• Temporal Scale: Evaluation period of up to 34 years (10 years for soil moisture) from 1990 to 2023.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: National Hydrological Model of Denmark (DK-model), an integrated, distributed hydrological model.
• Data sources:
  • Groundwater levels from the Jupiter database (GEUS, 2025).
  • Streamflow data from 579 stations across Denmark in the period 1990–2023.
  • Soil moisture measurements from three sites using the cosmic ray method (CRN) with around 10 years of data.

Main Results

• The DK-model was found to reproduce drought indices well for groundwater levels and streamflow compared to respective observational time series.
• For soil moisture, model performance was lower.
• Drought propagation, evaluated by accumulation periods for precipitation with optimal correlation to hydrological drought, is likewise reproduced well for streamflow and groundwater.

Contributions

• This study contributes to improving large-scale hydrological drought modelling and enhances the understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of this approach.
• The findings provide critical insights into drought dynamics in temperate regions and support sustainable water resource management in a changing climate.

Funding

• Not specified.

Citation

@article{Schneider2026Drought,
  author = {Schneider, Raphael Johannes Maria and Stisen, Simon and Hansen, Mark F. T. and Andreasen, Mie and Nilsson, Bertel and Hinsby, Klaus and Henriksen, Hans Jørgen and Seidenfaden, Ida Karlsson},
  title = {Drought dynamics across the hydrological cycle – an extensive validation of the National Hydrological Model of Denmark},
  journal = {Hydrology and earth system sciences},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.5194/hess-30-4019-2026},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-4019-2026}
}