Keefe et al. (2026) Projections of Temperature-Driven Changes in Seasonal Ice Coverage Around Prince Edward Island, Canada

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Water
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-03-25
• Authors: Genevieve Keefe, Xiuquan Wang
• DOI: 10.3390/w18070777

Research Groups

The provided text does not explicitly list the research groups, labs, or departments involved in the study.

Short Summary

This study assesses the influence of climate change on seasonal ice coverage along Prince Edward Island's coast, projecting a substantial decline in freezing degree days, seasonal ice indices, and ice season length by the 2090s under various emission scenarios.

Objective

• To ascertain the influence of climate change on the ice coverage along Prince Edward Island’s coast.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Prince Edward Island's coast, southern Gulf of Saint Lawrence, with 50 study sites.
• Temporal Scale: Historical period (1981–2025) and future projections for the 2090s (next 80 years).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Ensemble of CMIP6 models (for future temperature forecasts).
• Data sources: Ice concentration data from 50 study sites, cumulative freezing degree days (FDDs).

Main Results

• Ice concentration data showed generally good logarithmic correlations with cumulative freezing degree days (mean R² = 0.63), with poorer correlations in areas exposed to wind and waves.
• Freezing degree days (FDDs) are projected to decrease significantly from an average of 487 °C days during the historical period (1981–2025) to:
  • Less than 164 °C days in the 2090s under a low-emission scenario (SSP1-2.6).
  • 97 °C days annually under a moderate-emission scenario (SSP2-4.5).
  • 28 °C days by the end of the century under a high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5).
• Seasonal ice indices are projected to decrease from an average historical value of 11.1 to 3.8 (SSP1-2.6), 3.2 (SSP2-4.5), and 0.8 (SSP5-8.5).
• The mean length of the ice season for the 2090s is projected to range from 3 to 24 days, representing a 70–96% reduction from the baseline observation, depending on the emission scenario.
• While mild variations in the rate of ice loss were observed across the province, significant differences in baseline ice coverage due to local currents and wave exposure led to a broad range in relative ice loss, with projections of zero ice winters along parts of the eastern coastline.

Contributions

• Quantifies the projected impact of climate change on seasonal ice coverage and season length specifically for Prince Edward Island's coastal regions.
• Provides detailed projections of freezing degree days and seasonal ice indices under multiple CMIP6 emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5).
• Highlights the spatial variability of ice loss along the coast, attributing differences to local environmental factors like currents and wave exposure.

Funding

The provided text does not mention any specific funding projects, programs, or reference codes.

Citation

@article{Keefe2026Projections,
  author = {Keefe, Genevieve and Wang, Xiuquan},
  title = {Projections of Temperature-Driven Changes in Seasonal Ice Coverage Around Prince Edward Island, Canada},
  journal = {Water},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/w18070777},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/w18070777}
}