Radu et al. (2026) Riverbed Evolution Trends Based on the Channel-Forming Discharge Concept: A Climate Change Scenario Analysis to 2100 for the Ialomița River, Romania

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Identification

• Journal: Water
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-02-05
• Authors: Andrei Radu, Laura Comănescu, Nicu Ciobotaru, Romulus Dumitru Costache
• DOI: 10.3390/w18030420

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study projects long-term riverbed evolution of the Ialomița River at the Băleni gauging station until 2100 using effective discharge (Qe) under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, finding dynamic equilibrium for RCP 4.5 and significant erosion followed by aggradation for RCP 8.5.

Objective

• To identify long-term trends in riverbed evolution at the Băleni gauging station on the Ialomița River, based on the channel-forming discharge concept, through the end of the 21st century.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Băleni gauging station on the Ialomița River.
• Temporal Scale: Up to 2100 (end of the 21st century), with analysis of trends until mid-century and at the end of the century.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: E–HYPE hydrological model, EURO–CORDEX EUR–11 ensemble climate projections.
• Data sources: Discharges simulated by the E–HYPE hydrological model, forced by eight EURO–CORDEX EUR–11 ensemble climate projections under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios.

Main Results

• Effective discharge (Qe) values range between 7.49 m³/s and 12.79 m³/s for RCP 4.5, and between 5.66 m³/s and 13.94 m³/s for RCP 8.5.
• Under RCP 4.5, the ensemble mean of Qe suggests a state of dynamic equilibrium, indicating the riverbed is likely to maintain its current geomorphological state.
• Under RCP 8.5, pronounced variability is identified, with intense erosion processes projected until mid-century, followed by a slight aggradation trend that may intensify at the end of the century.
• For RCP 8.5, the ensemble mean of Qe is projected to be 23.27% lower than the reference period, suggesting a potential future alteration of the Ialomița riverbed.

Contributions

• Provides a methodological framework for assessing future effective discharge.
• Offers insights that may support river management and restoration planning in the study area.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Radu2026Riverbed,
  author = {Radu, Andrei and Comănescu, Laura and Ciobotaru, Nicu and Costache, Romulus Dumitru},
  title = {Riverbed Evolution Trends Based on the Channel-Forming Discharge Concept: A Climate Change Scenario Analysis to 2100 for the Ialomița River, Romania},
  journal = {Water},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/w18030420},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/w18030420}
}