Ji et al. (2026) Scenario-Based Projections and Assessments of Future Terrestrial Water Storage Imbalance in China

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Water
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-08
• Authors: Renke Ji, Yingwei Ge, Hao Qin, Jing Zhang, Jingjing Liu, Chao Wang
• DOI: 10.3390/w18020169

Research Groups

[Information not provided in the paper text.]

Short Summary

This study develops a multi-scenario coupled prediction framework to assess future terrestrial water storage imbalance in nine major Chinese river basins under various climate and socio-economic scenarios through the end of the 21st century. It finds that high-emission scenarios lead to persistent high water conflict in northern basins (Yellow, Hai, Northwest Rivers), peaking mid-century, while low-emission scenarios significantly alleviate stress across most regions.

Objective

• To develop a multi-scenario coupled prediction framework integrating climate, socio-economic, and human activity drivers to assess terrestrial water storage imbalance in nine major river basins in China under six representative SSP–RCP scenarios through the end of the 21st century.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Nine major river basins in China.
• Temporal Scale: Through the end of the 21st century (with peak stress identified during 2040–2069).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: ISIMIP multi-model runoff outputs; a multi-scenario coupled prediction framework combining data-driven and physically based modeling approaches; a Water Conflict Index (WCI) proposed by integrating the Water Supply–Demand Stress Index and the Standardized Hydrological Runoff Index.
• Data sources: ISIMIP multi-model runoff outputs; GDP and population projections; climate, socio-economic, and human activity drivers.

Main Results

• Under high-emission scenarios, the Water Conflict Index (WCI) in the Yellow River, Hai River, and Northwest Rivers remains high, peaking during the period 2040–2069.
• Low-emission scenarios significantly alleviate water stress in most basins across China.
• Water allocation inequity is primarily driven by insufficient supply in arid northern regions and limited redistribution capacity in resource-rich southern basins.

Contributions

• Development of a novel multi-scenario coupled prediction framework for assessing terrestrial water storage imbalance under combined climate and socio-economic pressures.
• Proposal of a new Water Conflict Index (WCI) to identify high-risk basins by integrating supply-demand stress and hydrological runoff.
• Provides scenario-based quantitative support for future water security and policy-making in China.
• Identifies specific high-risk basins and the underlying drivers of water allocation inequity.
• Recommends targeted strategies for different risk types, including inter-basin water transfer, optimization of water use structure and pricing policies, and development of resilient management systems.

Funding

[Information not provided in the paper text.]

Citation

@article{Ji2026ScenarioBased,
  author = {Ji, Renke and Ge, Yingwei and Qin, Hao and Zhang, Jing and Liu, Jingjing and Wang, Chao},
  title = {Scenario-Based Projections and Assessments of Future Terrestrial Water Storage Imbalance in China},
  journal = {Water},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/w18020169},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/w18020169}
}