Sosa-Pérez et al. (2026) Surface Runoff Responses to Forest Thinning in Semi-Arid Oak–Pine Micro-Catchments of Northern Mexico

Identification

• Journal: Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-09
• Authors: Gabriel Sosa-Pérez, Argelia E. Rascón-Ramos, David E. Hermosillo-Rojas, Alfredo Pinedo‐Alvarez, Eduardo Santellano-Estrada, Raúl Corrales-Lerma, Sandra Rodríguez-Piñeros, Martín Martínez-Salvador
• DOI: 10.3390/hydrology13010027

Research Groups

• La Campana Experimental Station, National Institute of Forestry, Agriculture and Livestock Research (INIFAP), Chihuahua, Mexico.
• Faculty of Animal Science and Ecology, Autonomous University of Chihuahua, Chihuahua, Mexico.

Short Summary

This study evaluated the hydrological effects of forest thinning on surface runoff in semi-arid oak–pine micro-catchments in northern Mexico. It found that thinning treatments, particularly at 60% canopy cover, maintained relatively higher proportions of runoff compared to unthinned controls, suggesting a non-linear hydrological response primarily driven by extreme rainfall events.

Objective

• To evaluate the hydrological effects of varying canopy thinning intensities on event-based surface runoff generation in semi-dry oak–pine forest ecosystems in Chihuahua, Mexico.
• To empirically explore the hydrological mechanisms linked to rainfall characteristics and canopy structure that control runoff generation.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Three micro-catchments (MC) with areas of 0.27 hectares, 0.20 hectares, and 0.19 hectares, located within the same oak–pine stand at Teseachi Ranch, Sierra Madre Occidental, northwestern Chihuahua, Mexico.
• Temporal Scale: Hydrological monitoring was conducted during the rainy seasons (June to October) of 2018 (pre-thinning) and 2019 (post-thinning).

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Before–After–Control–Impact (BACI) experimental design.
  • Weibull probability models with a log link for event-based precipitation and surface runoff.
  • Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) for model fitting.
  • Rainfall Intensity Summarization Tool (RIST v3.94) for rainfall event metrics.
  • Antecedent Precipitation Index (API) for antecedent moisture conditions.
  • One-way ANOVA for baseline condition comparisons.
  • Shapiro–Wilk tests for normality assessment.
  • Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), corrected AIC (AICc), and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) for model comparison.
  • Statistical analyses performed using SAS software, version 9.4.
• Data sources:
  • Precipitation: Two tipping-bucket rain gauges (RainWise Inc.) with 0.25 mm resolution and HOBO event loggers.
  • Surface Runoff: Measured at the event scale using a multi-stage flow divider system with three aluminum containers (55 cm diameter, 112 cm height) at the natural drainage point of each micro-catchment.
  • Topographic Data: 10 meter resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) from INEGI, verified with GPS (Garmin eTrex 20x) and clinometer (Suunto PM-5/360 PC).
  • Soil Moisture: WaterScout SM100 sensors connected to WatchDog Series 1000 data-loggers (Spectrum Technologies, Inc.) at 20 cm depth.
  • Soil Physical Properties: Bulk density, porosity, and infiltration rate measured at representative locations.
  • Vegetation Structure: Complete tree inventory (diameter at breast height, total height, crown diameter) for tree density, basal area, and canopy cover estimates.
  • Surface Roughness: Quantified using the chain method.

Main Results

• Runoff generation in the semi-arid oak–pine forests was primarily governed by the occurrence and intensity of extreme rainfall events; a single 59 mm event in 2018 accounted for over 50% of the total runoff that year.
• Statistical modeling indicated that for each additional millimeter of precipitation, the mean runoff increased by approximately 12% (95% confidence interval: 8–17%).
• Thinning treatments significantly altered baseline runoff conditions:
  • Relative to the 2018 baseline, mean runoff ratios in 2019 were 0.087 in the 100% canopy control catchment (a 91% reduction).
  • Mean runoff ratios were 0.296 in the 60% canopy treatment (a 70% reduction, p = 0.0455).
  • Mean runoff ratios were 0.348 in the 20% canopy treatment (a 65% reduction, with marginal statistical significance, p = 0.089).
• BACI contrasts (comparing thinned vs. control in 2019 relative to 2018 baseline) suggested that thinned catchments maintained higher proportions of runoff than the unthinned control, with ratios of 4.01 for 20% canopy cover (p = 0.0535) and 3.41 for 60% canopy cover (p = 0.0861), both with marginal statistical significance.
• The selected Weibull model (M0) effectively represented the strongly right-skewed distribution of runoff events (shape parameter k ≈ 0.54), consistent with many small and few large events.

Contributions

• Provides novel ecohydrological insights into surface runoff responses to forest thinning in semi-arid oak–pine ecosystems of northern Mexico, an area with scarce event-scale hydrological data.
• Quantifies the effects of standardized canopy cover reductions on event-based runoff under controlled, homogeneous physiographic conditions, addressing a gap in existing literature regarding the isolated role of canopy cover.
• Offers a process-oriented framework and empirical baseline data for understanding forest–water interactions, crucial for designing adaptive forest management strategies aimed at optimizing water yield and hydrological resilience in water-limited environments.

Funding

• CFE (Comisión Federal de Electricidad), grant number CERESO-1723.

Citation

@article{SosaPérez2026Surface,
  author = {Sosa-Pérez, Gabriel and Rascón-Ramos, Argelia E. and Hermosillo-Rojas, David E. and Pinedo‐Alvarez, Alfredo and Santellano-Estrada, Eduardo and Corrales-Lerma, Raúl and Rodríguez-Piñeros, Sandra and Martínez-Salvador, Martín},
  title = {Surface Runoff Responses to Forest Thinning in Semi-Arid Oak–Pine Micro-Catchments of Northern Mexico},
  journal = {Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/hydrology13010027},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology13010027}
}