Ahmad et al. (2026) Rainfall–Groundwater Correlations Using Statistical and Spectral Analyses: A Case Study on the Coastal Plain of Al-Hsain Basin, Syria

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Identification

• Journal: Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-08
• Authors: Mahmoud Ahmad, Katalin Bene, Richard Ray
• DOI: 10.3390/hydrology13010025

Research Groups

Not explicitly mentioned in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study investigated the dynamic relationship between rainfall and groundwater levels in the Al-Hsain Basin, Syria, to understand aquifer recharge mechanisms. It revealed strong climatic control, with rapid recharge in shallow aquifers and delayed responses in deeper ones, and developed a highly accurate (R² = 0.97) predictive model incorporating temperature.

Objective

• To investigate the dynamic relationship between rainfall and groundwater levels in the Al-Hsain Basin coastal plain to quantitatively understand aquifer recharge mechanisms across diverse geological strata.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Al-Hsain Basin coastal plain, Syria, encompassing Quaternary, Neogene, and Cretaceous strata, monitored by 35 wells.
• Temporal Scale: 48 months (4 years) of monitoring data, from 2020 to 2024.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Statistical methods (correlation, regression), advanced time–frequency techniques (Wavelet Coherence), and a dual-variable predictive model incorporating temperature.
• Data sources: 48 months of groundwater level monitoring data from 35 wells; rainfall data (implied); temperature data.

Main Results

• Groundwater dynamics are under strong climatic control, particularly in shallow Quaternary wells.
• Shallow Quaternary wells exhibit rapid recharge responses with a lag of less than 1 month.
• Deeper aquifers showed delayed and buffered responses to rainfall.
• A dual-variable model, incorporating temperature alongside rainfall, significantly improved prediction accuracy (R² = 0.97) for groundwater levels, highlighting the role of evapotranspiration.

Contributions

• Provides a transferable diagnostic framework for identifying groundwater recharge zones.
• Supports adaptive groundwater governance strategies in data-scarce semi-arid environments.

Funding

Not explicitly mentioned in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Ahmad2026RainfallGroundwater,
  author = {Ahmad, Mahmoud and Bene, Katalin and Ray, Richard},
  title = {Rainfall–Groundwater Correlations Using Statistical and Spectral Analyses: A Case Study on the Coastal Plain of Al-Hsain Basin, Syria},
  journal = {Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/hydrology13010025},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology13010025}
}