Pellicone et al. (2026) Understanding Trends in Near-Surface Air Temperature Lapse Rates in a Southern Mediterranean Region

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Identification

• Journal: Climate
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-03-25
• Authors: Gaetano Pellicone, Tommaso Caloiero, Ilaria Guagliardi
• DOI: 10.3390/cli14040076

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study investigated the spatiotemporal variability of near-surface air temperature lapse rates in Calabria, identifying altitude as the dominant driver of temperature distribution and revealing a significant long-term decline in lapse rates, indicating accelerated warming at higher elevations.

Objective

• To investigate the spatiotemporal variability of the near-surface air temperature lapse rate (NSATLR) in Calabria, a Mediterranean region.
• To identify the primary drivers of near-surface air temperature (NSAT) variability.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Calabria region, Italy (representative of Mediterranean environmental and climatic conditions).
• Temporal Scale: Annual, seasonal, monthly, and long-term (70 years).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Not specified (general 'model simulations' mentioned).
• Data sources: Observational datasets, model simulations.
• Methods: Global sensitivity analysis (Sobol method), Bayesian linear regression modelling.

Main Results

• Altitude is the dominant factor influencing near-surface air temperature distribution, with minimal contributions from latitude, longitude, and proximity to the sea.
• Bayesian models performed robustly for mean and maximum temperatures, but minimum temperature prediction was more challenging.
• Lapse rate analyses confirmed a consistent inverse relationship between temperature and elevation, with the steepest gradients observed for minimum temperature (Tmin).
• A significant long-term decline in lapse rates over the past 70 years, particularly during winter and autumn, indicates accelerated warming at higher elevations, primarily driven by rising Tmin values.
• This trend suggests a gradual homogenization of temperature across altitudes.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive analysis of NSATLR variability and its drivers in a representative Mediterranean region.
• Identifies altitude as the primary control on temperature distribution, quantifying the minimal role of other geographical parameters.
• Reveals a critical long-term decline in lapse rates, highlighting accelerated warming at higher elevations and its implications for ecosystem dynamics, snowpack stability, agriculture, and urban planning.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Pellicone2026Understanding,
  author = {Pellicone, Gaetano and Caloiero, Tommaso and Guagliardi, Ilaria},
  title = {Understanding Trends in Near-Surface Air Temperature Lapse Rates in a Southern Mediterranean Region},
  journal = {Climate},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/cli14040076},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/cli14040076}
}