Yan et al. (2026) The interannual variability of the day-night compound hot days in the Yangtze River Basin: dynamic origins and seasonal predictability

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Climate
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-30
• Authors: Minyu Yan, Zhiwei Zhu
• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-26-0039.1

Research Groups

• State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management, CIC-FEMD/KLME, School of Atmospheric Sciences , Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology

Short Summary

This study investigates the interannual variability of day-night compound hot days (CHDs) in the Yangtze River Basin, China, and develops a physics-based empirical model to predict CHDs. The research reveals that CHDs are primarily associated with local anomalous barotropic high-pressure/anticyclone influenced by ocean-atmosphere precursors.

Objective

• Investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics, physical mechanisms, and seasonal predictability of day-night compound hot days (CHDs) in the Yangtze River Basin.
• Develop a physics-based empirical model to predict CHDs.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: The study focuses on the Yangtze River Basin, China.
• Temporal Scale: The research covers interannual variability from 1980 to 2022.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Physics-based empirical model developed using data from 1980 to 2010.
• Data sources: Historical climate data, including sea surface temperature patterns in the Pacific and North Atlantic, atmospheric teleconnections, and local weather conditions.

Main Results

• CHDs are primarily associated with a local anomalous barotropic high-pressure/anticyclone influenced by ocean-atmosphere precursors.
• The physics-based empirical model exhibits substantial prediction skill, with a temporal correlation coefficient of 0.67 during the independent validation period of 2011–2022.

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the physical mechanisms driving CHDs in the Yangtze River Basin and develops a predictive model for CHDs.
• The research highlights the importance of considering ocean-atmosphere interactions and land-atmosphere feedbacks in predicting extreme heat events.

Funding

• State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management, CIC-FEMD/KLME.

Citation

@article{Yan2026interannual,
  author = {Yan, Minyu and Zhu, Zhiwei},
  title = {The interannual variability of the day-night compound hot days in the Yangtze River Basin: dynamic origins and seasonal predictability},
  journal = {Journal of Climate},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-26-0039.1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-26-0039.1}
}