Levin et al. (2026) Influence of sea surface temperature patterns and mean warming on past and future Atlantic tropical cyclone activity

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Climate
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-03-26
• Authors: E. L. Levin, G. A. Vecchi, W. Yang
• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0635.1

Research Groups

Information not available from the abstract.

Short Summary

This study investigates the relative contributions of large-scale thermodynamic and dynamic processes to decadal and multidecadal changes in Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity from the late 19th century to 2100. It finds that TC frequency changes are primarily governed by potential intensity and moist entropy deficit, with regional sea surface temperature (SST) patterns, rather than global-mean warming, controlling both past variability and future changes.

Objective

• Investigate the relative contributions of large-scale thermodynamic and dynamic processes to decadal and multidecadal changes in Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity.
• Decompose TC counts into precursor disturbances that transition into fully developed storms.
• Isolate the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) spatial patterns from that of global-mean warming on Atlantic TC activity.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Tropical Atlantic basin and broader tropics.
• Temporal Scale: Historical record (late 19th century onwards) and future projections (extending to 2100), focusing on decadal and multidecadal changes.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Multi-ensemble simulations from two TC-permitting atmospheric models.
• Data sources: Controlled experiments using distinct sea surface temperature (SST) forcings.

Main Results

• Decadal and multidecadal changes in TC frequency are primarily governed by two thermodynamic variables: potential intensity and moist entropy deficit.
• In the historical record, potential intensity and moist entropy deficit reinforced one another, leading to robust trends in TC activity.
• Future projections suggest opposing influences, with potential intensity becoming more favorable for TCs while moist entropy deficit becomes less favorable, increasing uncertainty in TC projections.
• This shift is attributed to differences in relative warming between the tropical Atlantic and the broader tropics.
• Regional SST patterns, rather than the global mean warming rate, control both past variability and projected future changes in TC activity.

Contributions

• Provides a framework for decomposing TC counts into precursor disturbances and fully developed storms.
• Identifies potential intensity and moist entropy deficit as the primary thermodynamic drivers of decadal and multidecadal TC frequency changes.
• Highlights a critical divergence in the influence of these thermodynamic variables between historical trends and future projections.
• Demonstrates that regional SST warming patterns, not global-mean warming, are the dominant control on Atlantic TC activity variability and future changes.
• Underscores the necessity of constraining future projected patterns of warming to improve the reliability of TC projections.

Funding

Information not available from the abstract.

Citation

@article{Levin2026Influence,
  author = {Levin, E. L. and Vecchi, G. A. and Yang, W.},
  title = {Influence of sea surface temperature patterns and mean warming on past and future Atlantic tropical cyclone activity},
  journal = {Journal of Climate},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-25-0635.1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-25-0635.1}
}