Baker et al. (2026) Reduced future North Atlantic eddy-driven jet variability in high-resolution, fully coupled global climate models

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Climate
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-03-26
• Authors: Alexander J. Baker, Julia Lockwood, Panos J. Athanasiadis, Pier Luigi Vidale
• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0418.1

Research Groups

Not explicitly mentioned in the abstract.

Short Summary

This study evaluates the impact of model resolution on North Atlantic winter jet streams under historical and future climate conditions, finding that higher resolution improves zonal wind representation and projects a strengthening and poleward shift of the mid-latitude jet by 2050, contrasting with low-resolution models.

Objective

• To evaluate the impact of model resolution on the winter climatological zonal wind and on eddy-driven jet position and speed simulated under historical (1950–2014) and future (2015–2050) climate conditions in an ensemble of fully coupled global climate models.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: North Atlantic region. Atmospheric resolution: approximately 25 km to 100 km. Oceanic resolution: 1/12° to 1°.
• Temporal Scale: Historical period: 1950–2014. Future projection period: 2015–2050. Focus on winter climatology.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Ensemble of fully coupled global climate models.
• Data sources: Simulations from an ensemble of fully coupled global climate models.

Main Results

• Increasing resolution improves the North Atlantic climatological zonal wind field at mid-to-high latitudes, though biases persist around the low-latitude, equatorward flank of the upper-level subtropical jet.
• By 2050, low-resolution models simulate a small equatorward shift in the mid-latitude jet, reducing the meridional separation of the subtropical and mid-latitude jets.
• High-resolution models project a strengthening of the jets and a small poleward shift of the mid-latitude jet by 2050.
• Analysis of the large-scale meridional temperature gradient over the North Atlantic suggests tropical amplification influences the future zonal-wind response.
• Lower-level temperature gradient trends show some sensitivity to ocean resolution.
• At low resolution, the eddy-driven jet exhibits little mean meridional shift, but increasing resolution reduces the jet’s latitudinal variance.

Contributions

• Clarifies the role of model resolution in near-term North Atlantic climate projections.
• Suggests that further increases in atmosphere and ocean resolution may advance understanding of future jet behaviour and its downstream impacts on surface climate over Europe.

Funding

Not mentioned in the abstract.

Citation

@article{Baker2026Reduced,
  author = {Baker, Alexander J. and Lockwood, Julia and Athanasiadis, Panos J. and Vidale, Pier Luigi},
  title = {Reduced future North Atlantic eddy-driven jet variability in high-resolution, fully coupled global climate models},
  journal = {Journal of Climate},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-25-0418.1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-25-0418.1}
}