Thackeray et al. (2026) Record-setting heavy precipitation occurrence in 2024

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Science Advances
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-10-09
• Authors: Chad W. Thackeray, Jesse Norris, Alex D. Hall, Mark D. Zelinka, Stephen Po–Chedley
• DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aeb1692

Research Groups

• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
• University of [Unknown]

Short Summary

This study finds that 2024 experienced a record-high frequency of heavy precipitation events globally, driven by a combination of El Niño, multi-basin tropical ocean warmth, and long-term warming. The trend of increasing extreme precipitation is consistent with a warming climate.

Objective

• Investigate the global pattern of heavy precipitation extremes in recent decades

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global
• Temporal Scale: 1979 to 2025

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Climate models (not specified)
• Data sources: MSWEP (Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation) observations from 1979 to 2025

Main Results

• The frequency of heavy precipitation events (≥99th percentile; F P≥99 ) increased by ∼0.03%/decade over the study period.
• 2024 experienced a record-high frequency of F P≥99 globally, with a distinct seasonal evolution driven by El Niño and multi-basin tropical ocean warmth.

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the global pattern of heavy precipitation extremes and their relationship to climate variability and change.
• The findings suggest that years with 2024-level F P≥99 require either stronger El Niño forcing or concurrent multi-basin sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies.

Funding

• NOAA Climate Program Office (CPO)
• [Unknown funding source]

Citation

@article{Thackeray2026Recordsetting,
  author = {Thackeray, Chad W. and Norris, Jesse and Hall, Alex D. and Zelinka, Mark D. and Po–Chedley, Stephen},
  title = {Record-setting heavy precipitation occurrence in 2024},
  journal = {Science Advances},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aeb1692},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aeb1692}
}