Chen et al. (2026) Role of atmospheric circulation and anthropogenic forcing in the extreme 2025 European summer heatwave

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Environmental Research Letters
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-10-08
• Authors: Yan Chen, Wen Chen, Shangfeng Chen, Juan Feng, Tianjiao Ma
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aeb1e0

Research Groups

Not specified in the abstract.

Short Summary

This study investigates the roles of atmospheric circulation and anthropogenic forcing in the extreme European heatwave of summer 2025. It finds that atmospheric circulation explains a significant portion of regional maximum temperature anomalies, and anthropogenic forcing increases the probability of such an event by a factor of 194.0.

Objective

• To clarify the roles of atmospheric circulation and anthropogenic forcing in the extreme European high-temperature conditions observed in summer 2025.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Europe, specifically Southwestern Europe (SWEU) and Northern Europe (NEU).
• Temporal Scale: Summer 2025 (June-July for European mean maximum temperature), with reference to the 1979-2025 record for heatwave durations.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations for detection and attribution.
• Data sources: Flow analogue method (implying historical atmospheric circulation data from 1979-2025), and outputs from CMIP6 simulations.

Main Results

• Atmospheric circulation explains 82.5% (95% uncertainty interval: 65.0-99.0%) of regional mean maximum temperature (Tmax) anomalies in Southwestern Europe (SWEU) and 51.9% (37.0-65.2%) in Northern Europe (NEU) during their respective heatwave periods.
• Extreme anticyclonic circulation is associated with extreme Arctic Oscillation and British-Baikal Corridor (BBC) patterns in SWEU, and BBC and Atlantic-Eurasia patterns in NEU.
• Anthropogenic forcing increases the probability of exceeding the European mean June-July Tmax level observed in 2025 by a factor of 194.0 (95% confidence interval: 128.3-298.6).
• Greenhouse gas forcing increases the likelihood of exceeding this temperature threshold, while anthropogenic aerosol forcing reduces it.

Contributions

• Provides quantitative insights into the relative contributions of atmospheric circulation and anthropogenic forcing to extreme European heatwaves.
• Identifies specific atmospheric circulation patterns (Arctic Oscillation, British-Baikal Corridor, Atlantic-Eurasia) associated with high-temperature conditions in different European regions.
• Quantifies the impact of different anthropogenic forcings (greenhouse gases vs. aerosols) on the probability of such extreme events.

Funding

Not specified in the abstract.

Citation

@article{Chen2026Role,
  author = {Chen, Yan and Chen, Wen and Chen, Shangfeng and Feng, Juan and Ma, Tianjiao},
  title = {Role of atmospheric circulation and anthropogenic forcing in the extreme 2025 European summer heatwave},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aeb1e0},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aeb1e0}
}