Burderi et al. (2026) Regional and weather-type modulation of global warming–driven intensification of Italian precipitation extremes from multi-year storyline simulations

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Identification

• Journal: Environmental Research Letters
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-24
• Authors: Marco Burderi, Salvatore Pascale, Cristina Iacomino, Federico Grazzini, Matteo Nurisso, Amal John, Sebastian Beyer, Giuseppe Zappa
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae8fea

Research Groups

• Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Trento
• Institute for Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC), National Research Council of Italy

Short Summary

This study investigates changes in precipitation statistics over Italy using multi-year simulations under different climate conditions, revealing robust changes in mean and extreme precipitation that cannot be explained by a single scaling relationship.

Objective

• Investigate the impact of anthropogenic global warming on Italian precipitation extremes using event-storyline approaches with spectrally-nudged storyline simulations.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Italy (regional scale)
• Temporal Scale: 2017–2024 (multi-year period)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Destination Earth Digital Twin for Adaptation
• Data sources: Simulation data from the model

Main Results

• The number of wet days and annual mean precipitation decrease in southern Italy in summer, while annual mean precipitation increases slightly over northern Italy.
• Mean annual precipitation maxima increase nearly uniformly from north to south at rates close to 7% per degree of global-mean warming.
• Higher precipitation quantiles are more strongly amplified, with local maximum responses reaching up to 15–25 % ∘ C − 1 .
• Amplified responses are regional, seasonal, and circulation-dependent.

Contributions

This study demonstrates the potential of multi-year, spectrally-nudged storyline simulations to investigate statistical changes in precipitation extremes under identical synoptic forcing. The results highlight the complexity of the response to anthropogenic global warming and challenge the idea that a single scaling relationship can explain the observed changes.

Funding

• This research was funded by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (grant agreement No. [insert grant number])

Citation

@article{Burderi2026Regional,
  author = {Burderi, Marco and Pascale, Salvatore and Iacomino, Cristina and Grazzini, Federico and Nurisso, Matteo and John, Amal and Beyer, Sebastian and Zappa, Giuseppe},
  title = {Regional and weather-type modulation of global warming–driven intensification of Italian precipitation extremes from multi-year storyline simulations},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ae8fea},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae8fea}
}