Larson et al. (2026) Climate variability introduces uncertainty into future emissions pathways

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Environmental Research Letters
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-23
• Authors: James G. Larson, Patrick W. Keys, Frances C. Moore, Jesse Burkhardt
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae8f5a

Research Groups

• Climate Modeling Branch, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)
• Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Michigan

Short Summary

This study investigates how natural temperature variability influences global emissions trajectories through its impact on societal decision-making using a coupled climate-social model. The research finds that anomalous mid-century warmth accelerates net-zero emissions by several years, while cooling delays it.

Objective

• Investigate the effect of natural temperature variability on global emissions trajectories through its influence on societal decision-making

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global
• Temporal Scale: Mid-century to 2100

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Empirically-informed, coupled climate-social model
• Data sources: Monte Carlo ensembles spanning social, political, and technological parameters

Main Results

• Anomalous mid-century warmth strengthens public support for mitigation and accelerates net-zero emissions by several years.
• Anomalous cooling delays net-zero achievement.
• The response scales with the magnitude and persistence of variability.

Contributions

• This study highlights the sensitivity of emissions pathways to short-term climate signals and the role of societal interpretation of those signals in shaping global mitigation efforts.

Funding

• NASA's Modeling, Analysis and Prediction (MAP) program (Grant No. NNX17AC32G)
• National Science Foundation (NSF) Grant No. AGS-1822653

Citation

@article{Larson2026Climate,
  author = {Larson, James G. and Keys, Patrick  W. and Moore, Frances C. and Burkhardt, Jesse},
  title = {Climate variability introduces uncertainty into future emissions pathways},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ae8f5a},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae8f5a}
}