Monte et al. (2026) Windows of opportunity in the prediction of dry and wet seasonal climate anomalies: a case study for the Middle East in autumn

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Identification

• Journal: Environmental Research Letters
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-17
• Authors: Thomas Dal Monte, Andrea Alessandri, Annalisa Cherchi, Markus G. Donat, Marco Gaetani
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae8c55

Research Groups

• Middle East Climate Center (MECC)
• International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP)

Short Summary

This study identifies 'windows of opportunity' for predicting dry and wet events in the Middle East by analyzing the contribution of each autumn to the prediction skill across eight seasonal prediction systems. Strong anomalies in the tropical Pacific or Indian Ocean are found to be key contributors to prediction skill.

Objective

• Investigate the relationship between large-scale teleconnections and predictability of precipitation in semi-arid regions, particularly the Middle East.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional (Middle East)
• Temporal Scale: Seasonal (autumn)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Eight seasonal prediction systems (SPSs) and their multi-model ensembles.
• Data sources: Climate reanalysis data, satellite observations.

Main Results

• A small number of years with strong anomalies in the tropical Pacific or Indian Ocean are key contributors to prediction skill for dry and wet events.
• Prediction skill increases with the ability of individual SPSs to represent relevant large-scale teleconnections.

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into identifying 'windows of opportunity' for predicting precipitation variability, which can significantly increase the practical value of seasonal predictions in climate-vulnerable regions.

Funding

• MECC Research Grant (MECC-RG2022)
• European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No. 101017646

Citation

@article{Monte2026Windows,
  author = {Monte, Thomas Dal and Alessandri, Andrea and Cherchi, Annalisa and Donat, Markus G. and Gaetani, Marco},
  title = {Windows of opportunity in the prediction of dry and wet seasonal climate anomalies: a case study for the Middle East in autumn},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ae8c55},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae8c55}
}