Mhanna et al. (2026) Hydrological and ecological consequences of the Kakhovka dam collapse

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Environmental Research Letters
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-03-04
• Authors: Saeed Mhanna, Bridget R Scanlon, Ashraf Rateb, Landon James Szasz Halloran, Mario Bianco, Francois Zwahlen, Philip Brunner
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae4d5f

Research Groups

Not explicitly stated in the abstract.

Short Summary

This study assesses the cascading hydrological impacts of the Kakhovka dam destruction in June 2023, revealing significant decreases in total water storage, amplified river variability, episodic flooding, and long-term challenges for re-emerging wetlands due to groundwater decline.

Objective

• To assess the cascading impacts of the Kakhovka dam destruction on total water storage anomaly (TWSA), river hydrodynamics, flooding, and vegetation dynamics at a basin scale.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Dnieper River basin, focusing on the former Kakhovka reservoir area and downstream regions.
• Temporal Scale: From June 2023 (dam destruction) with observations extending to March 2024 and projections for TWSA deviation up to June 2025.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) analysis, causal inference modeling.
• Data sources:
  • Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On (GRACE-FO) gravimetry
  • Sentinel-1 imagery
  • Sentinel-2 imagery
  • Satellite altimetry (Database for Hydrological Time Series over Inland Waters, Surface Water and Ocean Topography - SWOT)
  • Field evidence (for groundwater storage decline confirmation)

Main Results

• The time-integrated Total Water Storage Anomaly (TWSA) deviation is projected to decrease by approximately 0.83 meters ± 0.36 meters (90% CI) relative to the counterfactual by June 2025.
• This loss is attributed to immediate surface water depletion and ongoing groundwater drainage into the emptied reservoir, with field evidence confirming groundwater storage decline.
• Hydrological variability in the Dnieper River downstream nearly doubled compared to the pre-collapse regime.
• Flooding patterns showed episodic inundation, peaking at 900 square kilometers in March 2024 before contracting below 300 square kilometers.
• Wetlands re-emerged in drained areas but face long-term sustainability challenges due to falling groundwater levels.

Contributions

• Demonstrates how armed conflict can trigger compounded hydrological disruptions.
• Advances causal analysis of Total Water Storage (TWS) using Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) in a novel framework.
• Exposes the unprecedented severity of groundwater losses alongside surface water changes resulting from such events.

Funding

Not explicitly stated in the abstract.

Citation

@article{Mhanna2026Hydrological,
  author = {Mhanna, Saeed and Scanlon, Bridget R and Rateb, Ashraf and Halloran, Landon James Szasz and Bianco, Mario and Zwahlen, Francois and Brunner, Philip},
  title = {Hydrological and ecological consequences of the Kakhovka dam collapse},
  journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ae4d5f},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae4d5f}
}