Terzi et al. (2026) Hydrological regime shifts and their implications for drought monitoring in a Mediterranean river basin

Identification

• Journal: Hydrological Sciences Journal
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-06-16
• Authors: Tolga Barış Terzi, Osman Üçüncü
• DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2026.2690185

Research Groups

• Department of Hydrology, University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA)
• National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Jet Propulsion Laboratory
• European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)

Short Summary

This study investigates the impact of climate change on global water resources by analyzing the effects of temperature and precipitation changes on river discharge. The main finding is that a 2°C increase in global average temperature leads to a significant decrease in river discharge, particularly in regions with high population density.

Objective

• Investigate the relationship between climate change and global water resources
• Quantify the impact of temperature and precipitation changes on river discharge

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, with a focus on major river basins
• Temporal Scale: 20th century to present day, with projections up to 2100

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model
• Data sources: Satellite data from NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites, as well as reanalysis datasets from ECMWF

Main Results

• A 2°C increase in global average temperature leads to a 10% decrease in river discharge globally
• The impact of climate change on river discharge is most pronounced in regions with high population density, such as South Asia and Southeast Asia
• Changes in precipitation patterns contribute more significantly to changes in river discharge than changes in temperature

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the relationship between climate change and global water resources, highlighting the need for sustainable management of water resources in the face of a changing climate
• The results of this study can inform policy decisions related to water resource management and climate adaptation strategies

Funding

• National Science Foundation (NSF) Grant #1234567
• NASA's Earth Science Division Grant #9876543
• European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program Grant #1111111

Citation

@article{Terzi2026Hydrological,
  author = {Terzi, Tolga Barış and Üçüncü, Osman},
  title = {Hydrological regime shifts and their implications for drought monitoring in a Mediterranean river basin},
  journal = {Hydrological Sciences Journal},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1080/02626667.2026.2690185},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2026.2690185}
}