Sguigaa et al. (2026) Retrospective Analysis and Future Projections of Bioclimatic Indices Under Climate Change: The Case of Azilal Province, Morocco

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Identification

• Journal: Springer Link (Chiba Institute of Technology)
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-02-04
• Authors: Ayoub Sguigaa, Saïd Moukrim, Saïd Lahssini, Abdellatif Khattabi
• DOI: 10.1051/bioconf/202621503004/pdf

Research Groups

Not explicitly mentioned in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study examines historical (1983-2016) and projected (2015-2100) bioclimatic changes, water balance, and thermal extremes in Azilal Province, Morocco, revealing significant warming, increasing aridity, and more frequent heat extremes, which collectively indicate a rising exposure to heat and water scarcity under future climate scenarios.

Objective

• To examine bioclimatic changes, water balance, and thermal extremes in Azilal Province, Morocco, using historical data and downscaled climate model projections under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Azilal Province, Morocco.
• Temporal Scale: Historical (1983-2016) and future projections (2015-2100).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Downscaled Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) projections.
• Data sources: Historical daily temperature and precipitation records (1983-2016), downscaled CMIP6 climate model projections (2015-2100) for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Moisture Diagnostics (CMI & SPEI) were used for aridity assessment.

Main Results

• Over 1983-2016, mean annual temperature increased by +1 °C, with maximum temperature (Tmax) increasing faster (+0.44 °C per decade) than minimum temperature (Tmin) (+0.30 °C per decade).
• Annual precipitation showed high variability and no significant historical trend, but future projections indicate a median 20-30% decrease by 2100 under SSP5-8.5.
• Moisture Diagnostics (CMI & SPEI) show a trend of increasing aridity, with a strengthening climatic water deficit (CMI < -1.5 metres per year) projected by 2100 for SSP5-8.5.
• Heat extremes are projected to increase in strength, with days exceeding 35 °C increasing by +13.8% per decade.
• An increase in drought frequency is projected, mainly attributed to increasing evaporative demand.
• A clustering based on "Wet/DTR↓" and "Dry/DTR↑" regimes was identified, with the "Dry/DTR↑" regime projected to increase to 50-60% of the province by 2100 under SSP5-8.5.
• The combined signals indicate a rising exposure to heat and water scarcity in the region.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive assessment of historical and future bioclimatic changes, water balance, and thermal extremes for Azilal Province, Morocco, integrating observed data with downscaled CMIP6 projections.
• Quantifies specific trends in temperature, precipitation, aridity, and heat extremes, highlighting the increasing vulnerability of the region to climate change impacts.
• Identifies a shift in climatic regimes towards drier conditions with higher diurnal temperature ranges, offering a detailed regional perspective on climate change impacts.

Funding

Not explicitly mentioned in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Sguigaa2026Retrospective,
  author = {Sguigaa, Ayoub and Moukrim, Saïd and Lahssini, Saïd and Khattabi, Abdellatif},
  title = {Retrospective Analysis and Future Projections of Bioclimatic Indices Under Climate Change: The Case of Azilal Province, Morocco},
  journal = {Springer Link (Chiba Institute of Technology)},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1051/bioconf/202621503004/pdf},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1051/bioconf/202621503004/pdf}
}