Rahimpour et al. (2026) Spatiotemporal variations in hydrometeorological drought across North Africa and indications of anthropogenic amplification

Identification

• Journal: Communications Earth & Environment
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-13
• Authors: Morteza Rahimpour, Taha B. M. J. Ouarda, Emna Gargouri-Ellouze, Fairouz Slama
• DOI: 10.1038/s43247-026-03807-2

Research Groups

• Canada Research Chair in Statistical Hydro-Climatology, Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Centre Eau Terre Environnement (INRS-ETE), Québec, QC, Canada.
• University of Tunis El Manar, National Engineering School of TUNIS (ENIT), LR99ES19; Laboratory of Modelling in Hydraulics and Environment (LMHE), Tunis, Tunisia.

Short Summary

This study assesses the spatiotemporal dynamics of drought variations across North Africa using a comparative, data-driven approach that integrates satellite observations and global datasets. The findings indicate that anthropogenic factors have intensified hydrological drought conditions throughout the region, with unprecedented record-breaking droughts in recent years.

Objective

• Investigate the spatiotemporal trends in key meteorological and hydrological variables across North Africa.
• Examine the relationship between meteorological and hydrological droughts and identify potential anthropogenic drivers of decoupling between them.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: The study focuses on five North African countries: Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Libya, and Egypt.
• Temporal Scale: The analysis covers a period from 1981 to 2024, with a focus on recent trends and patterns.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: ERA5 dataset for meteorological variables; GRACE/GRACE-FO datasets for terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSA); SPEIbase dataset for standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index.
• Data sources: Satellite-based precipitation datasets, including GPM IMERG product.

Main Results

• The study reveals significant changes in time series behavior across various regions of North Africa, characterized by increasing temperature and evapotranspiration and decreasing precipitation near the Mediterranean coasts.
• The relationship between meteorological and hydrological droughts varies by region, with anthropogenic factors likely amplifying drought severity and persistence.
• A statistically significant and abrupt decline in Tunisia’s groundwater resources was detected after 2010-2011.

Contributions

• This study provides a comprehensive assessment of the spatiotemporal evolution of both meteorological and hydrological droughts across North Africa, highlighting the importance of considering anthropogenic factors in drought research.
• The findings have critical implications for improving drought-monitoring systems and advancing sustainable water resources management across the region.

Funding

• This study was funded by the Canada Research Chair in Statistical Hydro-Climatology (INRS-ETE) and the University of Tunis El Manar, National Engineering School of TUNIS (ENIT), LR99ES19; Laboratory of Modelling in Hydraulics and Environment (LMHE).

Citation

@article{Rahimpour2026Spatiotemporal,
  author = {Rahimpour, Morteza and Ouarda, Taha B. M. J. and Gargouri-Ellouze, Emna and Slama, Fairouz},
  title = {Spatiotemporal variations in hydrometeorological drought across North Africa and indications of anthropogenic amplification},
  journal = {Communications Earth & Environment},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1038/s43247-026-03807-2},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03807-2}
}