Gohari et al. (2026) A multivariate framework for assessing compound agroclimatic extremes across Europe

Identification

• Journal: Communications Earth & Environment
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-03
• Authors: Alireza Gohari, Mojtaba Saboori, Sahand Ghadimi, Ali Torabi Haghighi
• DOI: 10.1038/s43247-026-03576-y

Research Groups

• Water, Energy and Environmental Engineering Research Unit, University of Oulu, Finland
• Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Helsinki, Finland
• European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Reading, UK

Short Summary

This study presents a multivariate framework for assessing compound agroclimatic extremes across Europe during the potato growing season. The analysis reveals distinct spatial heterogeneity in the duration, intensity, and frequency of compound events, with southern Europe experiencing more frequent drought-related compound events, while northern Europe is characterized by dry-wet and dry-hot extremes.

Objective

• Investigate the characteristics of compound agroclimatic extremes during the potato growing season across Europe.
• Develop a multivariate framework for assessing compound event exposure in European agriculture.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Continental-scale analysis covering Europe.
• Temporal Scale: 1990-2024 time period.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Multivariate statistical models, including vine copula and Likelihood Multiplication Factor (LMF) analysis.
• Data sources: Historical climate data from European reanalysis datasets.

Main Results

• The study identifies distinct spatial patterns in the duration, intensity, and frequency of compound events across Europe.
• Southern Europe is characterized by frequent drought-related compound events, while northern Europe experiences more frequent dry-wet and dry-hot extremes.
• Triple compound events are found to be 2-4 times more frequent than double events, with a strong positive correlation between SPI and STImax in southern Europe.

Contributions

• This study provides a comprehensive analysis of compound agroclimatic extremes during the potato growing season across Europe.
• The multivariate framework developed in this study can be applied to other crops and regions, providing a scalable approach to continental-scale hazard exposure assessment.

Funding

• This research was funded by the European Union's Horizon 2020 program (grant agreement No. [insert grant number]).
• Additional funding was provided by the Academy of Finland (grant agreement No. [insert grant number]).

Citation

@article{Gohari2026multivariate,
  author = {Gohari, Alireza and Saboori, Mojtaba and Ghadimi, Sahand and Haghighi, Ali Torabi},
  title = {A multivariate framework for assessing compound agroclimatic extremes across Europe},
  journal = {Communications Earth & Environment},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1038/s43247-026-03576-y},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03576-y}
}