Fu et al. (2026) Land-atmosphere feedbacks and anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing intensify subseasonal drought-to-pluvial abrupt transitions

Identification

• Journal: Communications Earth & Environment
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-03-23
• Authors: Yinghao Fu, Haishen Lü, Ali Levent Yagci, Yonghua Zhu, Yingying Xu, Tingxing Chen, Jiaying Liu, Yiding Ding, Di Liu, Long Xiang
• DOI: 10.1038/s43247-026-03371-9

Research Groups

• State Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
• College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
• Geomatics Engineering Department, Gebze Technical University, Kocaeli, Türkiye
• College of Geography and Remote Sensing, Hohai University, Nanjing, China

Short Summary

This study investigates subseasonal drought-to-pluvial abrupt transitions, revealing their global occurrence with an average probability of 45% and identifying land-atmosphere feedbacks as a key intensifying mechanism. Under high-emissions scenarios, both the frequency and probability of these transitions are projected to increase across over 75% of global land, primarily driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing.

Objective

• To identify and characterize the occurrence patterns of subseasonal drought-to-pluvial abrupt transitions globally.
• To investigate the underlying land-atmosphere feedback mechanisms that intensify these transitions.
• To project the future trajectories of these events under different anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing scenarios.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global land, with specific focus on mid-latitude monsoon regions (e.g., South Asia, Central Europe, Mediterranean).
• Temporal Scale: Subseasonal transitions; historical period (since 1980) and future projections under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5).

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) historical and future scenario simulations (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5).
  • Convergent cross-mapping analyses using the rEDM package.
  • Optimal fingerprinting attribution using the PyDnA package.
• Data sources:
  • ERA5 reanalysis data (Copernicus Climate Data Store).
  • Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP v2.8) dataset.
  • CMIP6 simulations accessed via the Earth System Grid Federation.
  • Post-processed data available in Zenodo.

Main Results

• Subseasonal drought-to-pluvial abrupt transitions occur globally with an average probability of approximately 45%, exceeding theoretical expectations for random conditions.
• These events are most frequent in mid-latitude monsoon regions, including South Asia, Central Europe, and the Mediterranean.
• Soil moisture deficits at the end of drought conditions enhance the likelihood of strong convective precipitation by intensifying near-surface heating and atmospheric moisture convergence, particularly in energy-limited climates.
• Under a high-emissions future (SSP5-8.5), both the frequency and probability of these abrupt transitions are projected to increase across more than three-quarters of global land.
• Anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing is identified as the primary driver for most of the projected increases in these events.

Contributions

• Development of a novel soil moisture-precipitation index for identifying subseasonal drought-to-pluvial abrupt transitions.
• Comprehensive global assessment of the occurrence patterns, underlying land-atmosphere feedback mechanisms, and future trajectories of these transitions.
• Quantification of the significant role of anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing in intensifying these hydroclimatic extremes under future climate scenarios.
• Highlights the growing risks associated with compound hydroclimatic extremes, providing crucial insights for hydrological stability and risk management.

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant no. 42471019)
• Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant no. B250205008)
• National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant nos. 42071033 and 41830752)

Citation

@article{Fu2026Landatmosphere,
  author = {Fu, Yinghao and Lü, Haishen and Yagci, Ali Levent and Zhu, Yonghua and Xu, Yingying and Chen, Tingxing and Liu, Jiaying and Ding, Yiding and Liu, Di and Xiang, Long},
  title = {Land-atmosphere feedbacks and anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing intensify subseasonal drought-to-pluvial abrupt transitions},
  journal = {Communications Earth & Environment},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1038/s43247-026-03371-9},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03371-9}
}