Adeyeri et al. (2026) Coupled climate–land-use interactions modulate projected heatwave intensification across Africa

Identification

• Journal: Communications Earth & Environment
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-07
• Authors: Oluwafemi E. Adeyeri, Kazeem A. Ishola, Sodiq Abayomi AJADİ, Bibian Ekot, Akinleye H. Folorunsho, Kayode Ayegbusi, Thierry N. Taguela, Akintomide A. Akinsanola, Christopher E. Ndehedehe, Tobi Eniolu Morakinyo
• DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-03110-6

Research Groups

• ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century, Fenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.
• Irish Climate Analysis and Research UnitS (ICARUS), Department of Geography, Maynooth University, Maynooth, Ireland.
• National Centre for Geocomputation, Maynooth University, Maynooth, Ireland.
• Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy, Central European University, Vienna, Austria.
• Department of Weather Forecasting Services, Nigerian Meteorological Agency, Abuja, Nigeria.
• Department of Environmental Science, Baylor University, Waco, Texas, USA.
• Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Illinois Chicago, IL, USA.
• Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith University, Nathan, QLD, Australia.
• School of Environment and Science, Griffith University, Nathan, QLD, Australia.
• Department of Geography, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA.

Short Summary

This study assesses projected heatwave intensification across nine African regions under coupled climate-land-use interactions using bias-corrected CMIP6 models and explainable AI, revealing that Western South Africa could experience over a 12-fold increase in heatwave duration and frequency under high emissions, with land-use changes amplifying these effects.

Objective

• Characterize the spatiotemporal variability and compound interactions of heatwave attributes across African regions in historical and future climates.
• Assess the role of key environmental variables (soil moisture, wind speed, temperature, relative humidity, and surface radiation fluxes) in modulating heatwave attributes and determine their relative contributions using explainable artificial intelligence.
• Evaluate how historical and projected land-use changes influence heatwave drivers.
• Quantify the avoided impacts of limiting greenhouse gas concentrations by estimating reductions in heatwave frequency, duration, number, and amplitude under a forcing pathway stabilized near 7.0 W/m² (SSP370) relative to a higher-forcing pathway reaching 8.5 W/m² (SSP585) by 2100.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Nine African climatic regions (West Africa, Central Africa, Sahara, Mediterranean, Eastern South Africa, Southern East Africa, Madagascar, Northern East Africa, and Western South Africa). Data bilinearly regridded to 1° × 1° spatial resolution.
• Temporal Scale: Historical period (1979–2014), mid-21st century (2025–2060), and late 21st century (2065–2100) on a daily timescale.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • 10-model ensemble from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6) Global Climate Models (GCMs).
  • Multivariate Bias Correction N-dimensional (MBCn) method.
  • Explainable Artificial Intelligence (eXML) techniques: XGBoost (Extreme Gradient Boosting) coupled with SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values.
  • Generalized Additive Models (GAMs).
  • Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs): REMIND-MAgPIE (for SSP585 LULC) and AIM/CGE (for SSP370 LULC).
• Data sources:
  • Reference environmental variables (precipitation, relative humidity, wind speed, air pressure, near-surface air temperature, sensible and latent heat fluxes, downward longwave and shortwave radiation, maximum and minimum air temperatures): W5E5 v2.0 and Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55).
  • Historical Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) data: History of the Global Environment (HYDE) database.
  • Future LULC projections: Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) 370 and 585 scenarios.

Main Results

• Under a high-end emissions scenario (SSP585), Western South Africa is projected to experience more than a 12-fold increase in heatwave duration and frequency.
• A moderate mitigation scenario (SSP370) substantially reduces heatwave occurrence in West Africa.
• Bias correction significantly improves the spatial fidelity of GCMs for historical heatwave attributes, reducing the root mean square error for heatwave duration from 1–9 days to 0–3 days.
• Future projections reveal a systematic transition from low-impact, discrete heatwave events historically to a persistent state of extreme heat, with annual heatwave frequency exceeding 100 days and durations often surpassing 20 days under SSP370 by the late 21st century.
• Environmental drivers, including temperature, humidity, and land-surface modification, show strong regional contrasts in modulating heatwave attributes, with temperature and humidity together accounting for over 35% of projected increases in several regions, amplified by cropland and pasture expansion.
• Land-use changes, particularly the expansion of annual crops and pastures, are projected to intensify heatwave regimes by altering surface biophysical properties, reducing evapotranspiration, and enhancing local warming.
• Mitigation efforts (SSP370 vs. SSP585) consistently reduce the recurrence, duration, and peak intensity of the most dangerous heatwaves by 2100, with the most coherent benefits projected for the western and southern continental flanks and eastern highland/coastal zones.

Contributions

• Establishes a robust framework for assessing heatwave intensification and the influence of land-use change across Africa.
• Validates and applies a multivariate bias-correction approach tailored to CMIP6 projections for the African continent.
• Quantifies the spatiotemporal dynamics, environmental drivers, and land-use impacts of heatwaves using explainable artificial intelligence.
• Provides region-specific insights to inform the design and implementation of effective adaptation and mitigation strategies.
• Demonstrates the importance of an integrated, multi-dimensional framework for heatwave risk assessment that considers land-use/land-cover, radiative fluxes, and soil moisture, beyond temperature alone.

Funding

• Australian Research Council grant number CE230100012.
• Australian Research Council grant number DE230101327.

Citation

@article{Adeyeri2026Coupled,
  author = {Adeyeri, Oluwafemi E. and Ishola, Kazeem A. and AJADİ, Sodiq Abayomi and Ekot, Bibian and Folorunsho, Akinleye H. and Ayegbusi, Kayode and Taguela, Thierry N. and Akinsanola, Akintomide A. and Ndehedehe, Christopher E. and Morakinyo, Tobi Eniolu},
  title = {Coupled climate–land-use interactions modulate projected heatwave intensification across Africa},
  journal = {Communications Earth & Environment},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1038/s43247-025-03110-6},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-03110-6}
}