Sun et al. (2026) Functional group and aridity regulate impacts of climate change on plant phenology: a meta-analysis

Identification

• Journal: Nature Communications
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-08
• Authors: Jianping Sun, Wangwang Lv, Shiping Wang, Amy M. Iler, Fandong Meng, Bowen Li, Yang Zhou, Jingya Lv, F. Yuan, Caiyun LUO, Josep Penuelas, Tandong Yao, Shilong Piao
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-68242-x

Research Groups

• State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
• Plant Biology and Conservation, Northwestern University, Illinois, USA
• Negaunee Institute for Plant Conservation Science and Action, Chicago Botanic Garden, Illinois, USA
• University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
• Northwestern Institute of Plateau Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xining, China
• CREAF, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain
• Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CEAB-CSIC-UAB, CSIC, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain
• Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Sino–French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China

Short Summary

This global meta-analysis investigates how plant functional groups and aridity regulate the impacts of warming and precipitation changes on plant phenology. The study reveals that leaf-out is primarily driven by water availability, while flowering is mainly influenced by temperature, with both responses showing complex synergistic or antagonistic interactions modulated by aridity and functional group.

Objective

• To test whether the effect of interactions between temperature and precipitation on plant phenology varies with aridity and plant functional groups and to explore the underlying mechanisms.
• How do precipitation changes modulate the effects of temperature on first leaf-out and flowering across natural grasslands globally?
• Do the interactive effects between temperature and precipitation vary with aridity (arid, semi-arid, semi-humid, and humid)?
• How do the interactions of warming, precipitation, and aridity depend on functional groups?

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, synthesizing data from 55 experimental sites for leaf-out and 117 experimental sites for flowering, spanning arid, semi-arid, semi-humid, and humid zones.
• Temporal Scale: Synthesis of data from manipulative field experiments, with individual study durations varying.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Meta-analysis (bias-corrected method for Hedges' g effect size), Linear Mixed Models (LMMs), segmented regression analysis, Mann-Whitney U-tests, Egger’s regression.
• Data sources: A global dataset compiled from a recent meta-analysis and additional manipulative field experiments, including data from Nagqu (China), Haibei (China), and the International Tundra Experiment (ITEX). The dataset comprises 2,178 values for onset of leaf-out and 4,027 values for first flowering. Aridity index (AI) values were extracted from a global AI database (Zomer et al., 2022) with approximately 1 kilometer spatial resolution.

Main Results

• Globally, the onset of leaf-out is more influenced by water availability (precipitation) than by temperature.
• Globally, first flowering is more affected by temperature than by precipitation.
• Warming generally advances leaf-out (Hedges' g = -0.12) for all functional groups, except in semi-humid regions where no effect was observed.
• Warming combined with decreased precipitation delays leaf-out in semi-arid regions.
• Warming consistently advances flowering (Hedges' g = -0.59) across all functional groups, regardless of precipitation changes or aridity.
• Synergistic effects of warming and decreased precipitation on leaf-out were observed for forbs in semi-arid regions.
• Antagonistic effects on leaf-out were found for grasses and sedges, except in arid regions.
• The importance of warming interacting with precipitation alteration on leaf-out ranged from -444% to 104% (average 274%), and on flowering from 53% to 125% (average 80%) in Hedges' g.
• Higher warming magnitudes lead to earlier leaf-out and flowering, while longer warming durations reduce the rate of advancement.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive global synthesis demonstrating the primary drivers of leaf-out (precipitation) and flowering (temperature) across diverse grassland ecosystems.
• Reveals that the impacts of climate change on plant phenology are critically regulated by the interplay of aridity and plant functional groups, highlighting complex synergistic and antagonistic interactions.
• Emphasizes the necessity of incorporating drought tolerance/resistance and ambient climate conditions into predictive models for plant phenology under future climate change.
• Identifies significant knowledge gaps, particularly the need for more manipulative experiments in arid regions and coupled warming-precipitation studies.

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (42230504, 32201358)
• Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (2022QZKK0101)
• China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (GZB20240779)
• Projects of the Naqu Science and Technology Bureau (NQKJ-2023-03) of Xizang Autonomous Region

Citation

@article{Sun2026Functional,
  author = {Sun, Jianping and Lv, Wangwang and Wang, Shiping and Iler, Amy M. and Meng, Fandong and Li, Bowen and Zhou, Yang and Lv, Jingya and Yuan, F. and LUO, Caiyun and Penuelas, Josep and Yao, Tandong and Piao, Shilong},
  title = {Functional group and aridity regulate impacts of climate change on plant phenology: a meta-analysis},
  journal = {Nature Communications},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1038/s41467-025-68242-x},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-68242-x}
}