Zhang et al. (2026) A Physics‐Based Approach to Project the Impact of Climate Change on Occurrence of Compound Floods in a Large River Delta

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Water Resources Research
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-01
• Authors: Anyifang Zhang, Kaiyue Shan, Xiping Yu
• DOI: 10.1029/2025wr043041

Research Groups

• Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona
• Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
• Pearl River Delta Water Resources Committee

Short Summary

This study develops a physics-based method to project coastal-fluvial compound flood risk under climate change, revealing significant increases in extreme event probabilities in the Pearl River Delta.

Objective

• Investigate how climate change affects multiple flood drivers and their interactions to improve projections of future compound extreme events.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: The study focuses on the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region.
• Temporal Scale: Historical period: 1974–2014; Future period: 2060–2100, under SSP5-8.5 scenario.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Physics-based method integrating tropical cyclone activities and rainfall-runoff processes.
• Data sources: Ensemble of 100,000 storm events generated using a combination of satellite data, observations, and reanalysis products.

Main Results

• Projected return period decreases from 55.5 to 15.5 years for coastal and fluvial extremes in the PRD under future climate scenario.
• Compound flood events unprecedented in the historical record are more likely to occur in the future.

Contributions

• Provides a physics-based method to dynamically integrate climate change impacts on multiple flood drivers, improving projections of compound extreme events.
• Highlights the need for adaptive coastal hazard management strategies to address escalating compound flood risk under climate change.

Funding

• Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2016YFC0402504)
• Funded by the Pearl River Delta Water Resources Committee (Grant No. PRDWR-2020-01)

Citation

@article{Zhang2026PhysicsBased,
  author = {Zhang, Anyifang and Shan, Kaiyue and Yu, Xiping},
  title = {A Physics‐Based Approach to Project the Impact of Climate Change on Occurrence of Compound Floods in a Large River Delta},
  journal = {Water Resources Research},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2025wr043041},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025wr043041}
}