Esenther et al. (2026) Climate Models Accurately Predict Ocean‐Going Meltwater Runoff From the Northwest Greenland Ice Sheet

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Identification

• Journal: Water Resources Research
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-01
• Authors: Sarah Eileen Esenther, L. C. Smith, A. Lewinter, C. Onclin, A. L. Boghosian, Asa Kristina Rennermalm, Dorthe Petersen, Lauren C. Andrews
• DOI: 10.1029/2025wr041863

Research Groups

• University of Copenhagen, Department of Geoscience
• Aarhus University, Department of Environmental Science

Short Summary

This study compares in situ proglacial discharge observations from Northwest and Southwest Greenland with SMB model estimates to evaluate the accuracy of climate models in estimating Greenland Ice Sheet runoff contributions.

Objective

• Investigate the discrepancies between SMB model runoff and in situ proglacial river discharge observations in Greenland, focusing on the impact of subglacial systems and proglacial lakes.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional (Northwest and Southwest Greenland)
• Temporal Scale: 2019–2022 (4 years) for Northwest watersheds, 2019–2021 (3 years) for Southwest watersheds

Methodology and Data

• Models used: RACMO2.3p2, MARv3.14, MERRA‐2 SMB models
• Data sources: In situ proglacial discharge observations from two Northwest Greenland watersheds and three Southwest Greenland watersheds

Main Results

• Fast meltwater evacuation in Northwest Greenland watersheds with broad agreement between modeled and observed daily runoff (−21%, 6%, and −6% error for RACMO2.3p2, MARv3.14, and MERRA‐2, respectively)
• Higher uncertainty in Southwest Greenland due to subglacial activity and proglacial lakes
• Runoff overestimation in Southwest Greenland watersheds (13%–31%, 97%–137%, and 68%–103%, respectively)

Contributions

• Provides new insights into the accuracy of SMB models in estimating Greenland Ice Sheet runoff contributions, particularly in regions with minimal subglacial interference
• Highlights the importance of considering subglacial systems and proglacial lakes when evaluating SMB model performance

Funding

• Not specified

Citation

@article{Esenther2026Climate,
  author = {Esenther, Sarah Eileen and SMITH, LAURENCE C. and Lewinter, A. and Onclin, C. and Boghosian, A. L. and Rennermalm, Asa Kristina and Petersen, Dorthe and Andrews, Lauren C.},
  title = {Climate Models Accurately Predict Ocean‐Going Meltwater Runoff From the Northwest Greenland Ice Sheet},
  journal = {Water Resources Research},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2025wr041863},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025wr041863}
}