Nan et al. (2026) Omitting Frozen‐Soil Effects in Hydrological Models Introduces Biases in Estimated Runoff Sensitivity to Climate Change in Cold Basins

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Water Resources Research
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-01
• Authors: Yi Nan, Fuqiang Tian, Ying Zhao
• DOI: 10.1029/2025wr041331

Research Groups

• Tsinghua University Water Resources Research Group
• Hydrology Department, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences

Short Summary

This study compares two versions of the Tsinghua Representative Elementary Watershed-Tracer-aided model (THREW-T) to evaluate runoff-projection biases caused by omitting frozen-soil effects in cold mountainous catchments. The results suggest that a model without a frozen soil module may overestimate runoff sensitivity to climate perturbations.

Objective

• Investigate the impact of frozen soil on hydrological simulation and runoff projection in cold mountainous catchments

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Small watershed scale (Representative Elementary Watershed)
• Temporal Scale: Annual to decadal timescales

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Tsinghua Representative Elementary Watershed-Tracer-aided model (THREW-T) with frozen soil module (THREW-FS) and without frozen soil module (THREW-NoFS)
• Data sources: Satellite data, observation data, reanalysis data

Main Results

• Both models accurately simulated streamflow, but they differed in isotope behavior and subsurface runoff partitioning.
• THREW-FS estimated a much higher annual subsurface runoff contribution than THREW-NoFS (68.5% vs. 41.3%).
• Divergences in runoff sensitivity arose from differences in surface-subsurface runoff partitioning and dynamic soil property.

Contributions

• This study highlights the importance of including frozen soil effects in hydrological models for accurate runoff projection in cold mountainous catchments.
• The tracer-aided approach used in this study can constrain uncertainties in runoff component partitioning and produce credible runoff projections.

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 51879213)
• Tsinghua University Water Resources Research Group Fund

Citation

@article{Nan2026Omitting,
  author = {Nan, Yi and Tian, Fuqiang and Zhao, Ying},
  title = {Omitting Frozen‐Soil Effects in Hydrological Models Introduces Biases in Estimated Runoff Sensitivity to Climate Change in Cold Basins},
  journal = {Water Resources Research},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2025wr041331},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025wr041331}
}