Liu et al. (2026) Global assessment of drought risk to expanded urban land from 2020 to 2100

Identification

• Journal: Land Use Policy
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-03-25
• Authors: Qiuyu Liu, Mingxi Du
• DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.108040

Research Groups

School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China

Short Summary

This study assesses global drought risk for expanded urban land from 2020 to 2100 by integrating future urban land cover projections with climate, socioeconomic, and demographic data, finding a continuous increase in drought risk across all climate change scenarios, particularly in developing countries.

Objective

• To understand how future climate change, intensifying drought, and continued urban expansion jointly shape urban drought risk, and to assess this risk for global expanded urban land from 2020 to 2100, identifying major contributing factors.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global
• Temporal Scale: 80 years (2020-2100)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: No specific process-based models (e.g., ISBA, mHM) are mentioned; the study integrates various projections and datasets.
• Data sources: Future projections of urban land cover, climate datasets, socioeconomic datasets, demographic datasets.

Main Results

• Global urban drought risk is projected to continuously increase from 2020 to 2100 across all future climate change scenarios.
• Developing countries are expected to face higher levels of drought pressure in the future.
• The primary drivers of risk (drought, urban expansion, urban vulnerability) vary substantially over time and across scenarios; urban expansion dominates risk under low forcing scenarios, while drought becomes dominant under more severe ones.
• Enhancing urban climate resilience requires coordinated efforts across climate mitigation, spatial planning, and socioeconomic development.
• Specific strategies are recommended for developed countries (sustained emissions reductions, urban renewal, nature-based solutions) and developing countries (better management of expansion in high-risk areas, strengthening socioeconomic resilience).

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive global assessment of future drought risk to expanded urban land, integrating multiple future projections (urban land cover, climate, socioeconomic, demographic).
• Identifies the varying dominant roles of drought, urban expansion, and urban vulnerability across different climate scenarios and over time.
• Offers policy-relevant insights and differentiated strategies for enhancing urban climate resilience in both developed and developing countries.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Liu2026Global,
  author = {Liu, Qiuyu and Du, Mingxi},
  title = {Global assessment of drought risk to expanded urban land from 2020 to 2100},
  journal = {Land Use Policy},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.108040},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.108040}
}