Chen et al. (2026) Intensifying dry-to-wet extremes across Europe: long-term evolution and contrasting impacts on vegetation dynamics

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-02
• Authors: Haiyan Chen, Ye Tuo, Niklas Boers, Markus Disse
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136153

Research Groups

• Chair of Hydrology and River Basin Management, School of Engineering and Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
• School of Engineering and Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany

Short Summary

This study presents a pan-European assessment of dry-to-wet extremes (DTWEs) and their impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. The analysis reveals a pronounced intensification of DTWEs across Europe, characterized by increasing spatial extent, frequency, and intensity.

Objective

• Investigate the large-scale ecological consequences of DTWEs in Europe.
• Examine the relationships between DTWEs and vegetation dynamics at the continental scale.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Continental (Europe-wide).
• Temporal Scale: 1950–2022 for DTWE identification, 1982–2020 for vegetation analysis.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for DTWE identification.
• Data sources:
  • Temperature and precipitation data from the European Observation Database (E-OBS).
  • Soil moisture data from the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM).
  • Vegetation indices (NDVI, LAI) from satellite-derived datasets.

Main Results

• DTWEs are intensifying across Europe, with increasing spatial extent, frequency, and intensity.
• Vegetation responses to DTWEs vary seasonally, with enhanced productivity in low-to-moderate intensity events occurring before the growing season and widespread suppression during the growing season.
• Causal signals between DTWEs and vegetation dynamics are more detectable early in the season, while signals during peak growth are influenced by confounding factors.

Contributions

• This study provides a systematic continental-scale assessment of natural or semi-natural vegetation responses to DTWEs across Europe.
• The findings highlight the importance of considering soil moisture as an intermediate variable in understanding the relationships between DTWEs and vegetation dynamics.

Funding

• Not specified.

Citation

@article{Chen2026Intensifying,
  author = {Chen, Haiyan and Tuo, Ye and Boers, Niklas and Disse, Markus},
  title = {Intensifying dry-to-wet extremes across Europe: long-term evolution and contrasting impacts on vegetation dynamics},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136153},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.136153}
}