Tu et al. (2026) Global cropland expansion amplifies the risk of compound dry and hot events under climate change

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-08
• Authors: Guoyong Leng, Linfei Yu, Lei Yao, Jiali Qiu, Lubin Han
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135995

Research Groups

Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

Short Summary

This study assesses the impact of climate change and cropland expansion on global exposure to Compound Dry and Hot Events (CDHEs) under different severity levels. The findings reveal a significant increase in CDHEs exposure under all future warming scenarios.

Objective

• Investigate the combined effects of climate change and cropland expansion on global CDHEs exposure across varying severity levels.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, with a focus on major grain-producing regions.
• Temporal Scale: 2070–2099, using climate model projections from CMIP6.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6).
• Data sources: Dynamic cropland maps under four Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs).

Main Results

• Global cropland exposure to CDHEs increases under all future warming scenarios, with exceptional CDHEs contributing the most significant rise (50.86% increase by 2070–2099).
• Northern South America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and parts of Asia face the largest exposure increases.

Contributions

• This study highlights the urgent need for targeted climate mitigation and adaptive land-use policies to reduce CDHEs risks, particularly in vulnerable regions.
• The findings emphasize the importance of considering the interaction between climate change and cropland expansion when assessing CDHEs exposure.

Funding

• Funded by [insert funding projects, programs, and reference codes].

Citation

@article{Tu2026Global,
  author = {Tu, Haiyang and Leng, Guoyong and Yu, Linfei and Yao, Lei and Qiu, Jiali and Han, Lubin},
  title = {Global cropland expansion amplifies the risk of compound dry and hot events under climate change},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135995},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135995}
}