Cao et al. (2026) RRV (reliability, resilience and vulnerability)-based assessment of groundwater extraction sustainability in an over-exploited piedmont plain

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-02-06
• Authors: Guoliang Cao, Dongmei Han, Yonghong Zhang
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135100

Research Groups

• Key Laboratory of Groundwater Conservation of MWR, China University of Geosciences (Beijing)
• School of Water Resources and Environment, China University of Geosciences (Beijing)
• Key Laboratory of Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
• College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
• Chinese Academy of Surveying and Mapping

Short Summary

This study evaluates groundwater extraction sustainability in the overexploited Beijing Plain, revealing that precipitation accounts for 86% of groundwater storage variations, and sustainability assessments based solely on groundwater storage changes significantly overestimate actual sustainability compared to those considering precipitation deficits.

Objective

• To evaluate the sustainability of groundwater extraction in the Beijing Plain by analyzing long-term variations of multiple regional factors from 1961 to 2023, specifically addressing the rarely evaluated aspects of evaluation period length covering complete recharge-drought cycles and the relative contributions of precipitation in groundwater storage change-based sustainability frameworks.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Beijing Plain, an overexploited piedmont plain.
• Temporal Scale: 1961 to 2023 (63 years).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Statistical methods: Regression procedures, Dominance Analysis (DA).
• Data sources: Observational data for groundwater storage changes, precipitation, and groundwater pumping.

Main Results

• Groundwater storage (GWS) changes are significantly influenced by the frequencies of dry and wet years.
• Dominance Analysis (DA) reveals that 86% of GWS variations are attributable to precipitation.
• GWS loss in dry years accounts for 85% of total depletion, indicating the dominant influence of drought periods.
• The sustainability index (SI) determined from GWS changes systematically overestimated the system’s sustainability by up to 34% compared to that derived from precipitation deficit.
• This overestimation is primarily due to the overestimation of the system’s reliability, caused by the threshold represented by the deviation for non-stationary GWS changes.
• After the operation of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP), the groundwater system shows signs of approaching equilibrium.
• However, GWS recovery does not equate to sustainability, as evidenced by a declining SI trend.

Contributions

• Highlights the critical importance of considering complete recharge-drought cycles and the relative contributions of precipitation in groundwater extraction sustainability assessments, addressing gaps in existing frameworks.
• Quantifies the dominant role of precipitation (86%) in driving groundwater storage variations in an overexploited piedmont plain.
• Demonstrates that sustainability indices based solely on groundwater storage changes can significantly overestimate actual sustainability, advocating for the inclusion of precipitation deficit in assessments.
• Underscores the necessity of dynamically adjusting groundwater pumping rates to mitigate overexploitation, even in systems showing signs of GWS recovery.

Funding

Not explicitly mentioned in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Cao2026RRV,
  author = {Cao, Guoliang and Han, Dongmei and Zhang, Yonghong},
  title = {RRV (reliability, resilience and vulnerability)-based assessment of groundwater extraction sustainability in an over-exploited piedmont plain},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135100},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135100}
}