Sun et al. (2026) Climate warming-induced glacier mass loss driving peak runoff variability and cryosphere service value decline

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-02-04
• Authors: Jingyao Sun, Jianxia Chang, Aijun Guo, Yimin Wang, Zhehao Li, Dingrong Zhai, Peipei Wang, Jiayang Wang
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135084

Research Groups

State Key Laboratory of Water Engineering Ecology and Environment in Arid Area, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an 710048, China

Short Summary

This study investigates glacier responses to past and future climate change using an integrated ice-dynamic model. It reveals that climate warming will cause substantial and irreversible glacier mass loss, leading to declining glacier service values and shifts in peak runoff timing, particularly in High Mountain Asia.

Objective

• To investigate glacier responses to past and future climate change.
• To assess the long-term dynamics of glacier mass, area, and volume through 2100 under different climate scenarios.
• To analyze glacier runoff changes and the differences in the timing of peak runoff.
• To quantify the ecological value loss resulting from glacier retreat using a unit area service pricing method.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: 11,625 glaciers in alpine regions, focusing on High Mountain Asia and the Tarim River Basin.
• Temporal Scale: Glacier mass balance reconstructed from 1990 to 2019; glacier dynamics and runoff assessed through 2100.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Integrated ice-dynamic Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM).
• Data sources: Reconstructed annual mass balance series; climate scenarios (low-emission and high-emission); unit area service pricing method for value quantification.

Main Results

• Climate warming will lead to substantial and irreversible glacier mass loss, characterized by initial thinning followed by retreat, resulting in an overall negative mass balance.
• By the end of the 21st century, glacier area and volume are projected to decrease by more than 40% in most basins.
• Peak runoff is expected around 2050 under low-emission scenarios, while delayed peaks are associated with high-emission scenarios and regions with substantial glacier reserves.
• Glacier service values are predicted to decline significantly or be entirely lost, with this trend intensifying from southwest to northeast in the Tarim River Basin.

Contributions

• Provides new insights into glacier dynamical and hydrological responses under climate warming.
• Contributes to understanding regional socio-ecological sustainability and optimized water resource management.
• Establishes an index for quantifying the ecological value loss from glacier retreat using a unit area service pricing method.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Sun2026Climate,
  author = {Sun, Jingyao and Chang, Jianxia and Guo, Aijun and Wang, Yimin and Li, Zhehao and Zhai, Dingrong and Wang, Peipei and Wang, Jiayang},
  title = {Climate warming-induced glacier mass loss driving peak runoff variability and cryosphere service value decline},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135084},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135084}
}