Li et al. (2026) How precipitation extremes respond to rapid warming over the Tibetan Plateau

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Hydrology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-10
• Authors: Shuping Li, Dongdong Wang, Zhengyi Han, Zhe Yin, Shiquan Wan, Pengcheng Yan
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.134941

Research Groups

• College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, China
• Yangzhou Meteorological Bureau of Jiangsu Province, Yangzhou, China
• Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou, China

Short Summary

This study investigates the elevation-dependent response of extreme precipitation to rapid warming over the Tibetan Plateau, revealing a distinct temperature shift around 2002/2003 that has led to decreased wet-day precipitation at lower elevations and intensified extreme precipitation at higher elevations (3000–4500 m).

Objective

• To clarify the elevation-dependent response of extreme precipitation to recent rapid warming over the Tibetan Plateau from an observational perspective.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Tibetan Plateau (TP)
• Temporal Scale: 1979–2021, analyzed in two periods: 1979–2002 (earlier) and 2003–2021 (recent warmer).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Not applicable; this is an observational study.
• Data sources: Observational precipitation and temperature data. Analysis of six precipitation indices: PRCPTOT (total precipitation), R1mm (wet-day frequency), SDII (simple daily intensity index), R95pTOT (total precipitation from very wet days), R99pTOT (total precipitation from extremely wet days), and RX1day (maximum 1-day precipitation).

Main Results

• A statistically significant temperature shift occurred around 2002/2003 over the Tibetan Plateau, with the period 2003–2021 being markedly warmer than 1979–2002.
• Extreme precipitation regimes show pronounced spatiotemporal changes during the recent warmer period.
• Significant decreases in wet-day precipitation and frequency were observed, alongside robust increases in extreme precipitation intensity.
• These changes are strongly dependent on elevation:
  • Reduced wet-day precipitation and frequency occurred at elevations below 2500 m.
  • Intensified precipitation extremes were observed at elevations of 3000–4500 m.
• The precipitation-temperature relationship over the Tibetan Plateau exhibits a hook-like structure, with an inflection point around 15 °C.
• The recent warmer climate contributes to more intense precipitation extremes due to increased atmospheric moisture availability.
• Scaling rates of R95pTOT and R99pTOT exceed the Clausius–Clapeyron rate at elevations of 2500–4500 m.
• Negative scalings were observed at elevations below 2500 m and above 4500 m.

Contributions

• Provides observational evidence for a distinct temperature transition point (2002/2003) over the Tibetan Plateau.
• Quantifies the elevation-dependent response of extreme precipitation to rapid warming, highlighting specific elevation ranges where precipitation extremes are most sensitive (2500–4500 m).
• Reveals a hook-like precipitation-temperature relationship over the Tibetan Plateau.
• Suggests that recent rapid warming is reshaping the spatial distribution of precipitation across the Tibetan Plateau, with implications for regional water resources and ecological productivity.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Li2026How,
  author = {Li, Shuping and Wang, Dongdong and Han, Zhengyi and Yin, Zhe and Wan, Shiquan and Yan, Pengcheng},
  title = {How precipitation extremes respond to rapid warming over the Tibetan Plateau},
  journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.134941},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.134941}
}