Fereshtehpour et al. (2026) Development of an interactive web-based tool for flood risk analysis and climate–resilient road drainage design: RiskDRAIN

Identification

• Journal: Environmental Modelling & Software
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-10
• Authors: Mohammad Fereshtehpour, Rashid Bashir, Neil F. Tandon
• DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.106867

Research Groups

• Department of Civil Engineering, Lassonde School of Engineering, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada
• Northern Forestry Centre, Natural Resources Canada (NRCan), Edmonton, AB, Canada
• Department of Earth and Space Science and Engineering, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada
• Centre for Research in Earth and Space Science, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada

Short Summary

This paper introduces RiskDRAIN, an interactive web-based tool designed to provide risk-based adjustments for projected design storms, addressing the limitations of traditional stationary methods under climate change. RiskDRAIN integrates Canadian downscaled climate projections with a comprehensive risk framework, enabling practitioners to develop cost-effective and climate-resilient road drainage infrastructure designs.

Objective

• To develop an accessible, interactive, web-based decision-support tool (RiskDRAIN) that facilitates risk-informed adjustment of future design storms by integrating multi-model climate projections and comprehensive risk assessment, thereby enabling climate-resilient road drainage infrastructure design.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Province of Ontario, Canada, with a case study focused on a culvert on Highway 17. Spatial interpolation of rainfall changes across the province.
• Temporal Scale: Historical period (1998–2023 for CMORPH data); Future horizons: mid-century (2041–2070) and late-century (2071–2100). Culvert design lifespan of 75 years.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • RiskDRAIN (web-based application built with R and Shiny package)
  • IDF-CC tool (for Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves)
  • Canadian Downscaled Climate Scenarios data (CanDCS-M6)
  • Projection techniques: Clausius-Clapeyron scaling, Equidistance Quantile Matching (EQM)
  • Statistical distributions: Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Gumbel
  • Kriging (geostatistical interpolation for spatial mapping of rainfall change)
  • Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) framework for hazard aggregation
  • 5 × 5 Bivariate Risk Matrix for risk level determination
• Data sources:
  • Canadian downscaled CMIP6 projections (CanDCS-M6)
  • IDF-CC tool (historical and projected IDF data for gauged and ungauged stations)
  • Ontario Provincial Digital Elevation Model (PDEM) (30 meter spatial resolution)
  • Global high-resolution datasets for Curve Number (CN)
  • CMORPH satellite-based precipitation records (1998–2023) for CLIMDEX indices
  • CLIMDEX indices (PRCPTOT, R99p, SDII)
  • Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) for Ontario
  • Ontario Road Network (ORN) and Ministry of Transportation Ontario (MTO) road class data

Main Results

• RiskDRAIN was successfully developed as an interactive web-based tool for risk-based adjustment of design storms, integrating climate projections and a comprehensive risk framework.
• The tool incorporates two projection techniques (Clausius-Clapeyron scaling, Equidistance Quantile Matching), two extreme value distributions (GEV, Gumbel), and two emission pathways (SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) for future horizons (mid- and late-century).
• Hazard is characterized by physiographic (slope, flow accumulation, topographic wetness index, Curve Number) and meteorological (historical CLIMDEX indices, projected rainfall change) factors.
• Vulnerability is multi-dimensional, encompassing socio-economic (income, education, population vulnerability), transportation (road class, vehicle type, alternative routes), and environmental (water contamination, erosion, habitat disruption) aspects.
• A highway drainage case study demonstrated RiskDRAIN's utility:
  • Unadjusted climate projections (SSP5-8.5, far future, GEV, EQM) indicated approximately 36–40 % increases in rainfall intensity for 12- and 24-hour durations across 25-, 50-, and 100-year return periods.
  • The Clausius-Clapeyron method projected a higher baseline increase of approximately 72 %.
  • A provincial-wise network assessment (classified as Severe risk, Level 5) resulted in a 100 % scaling factor, applying the full climate projection.
  • A site-specific assessment (classified as Significant risk, Level 4) modulated the projected increases:
    • EQM-based increases were reduced to 29–32 % (from 36–40 %).
    • Clausius-Clapeyron-based increases were reduced to approximately 58 % (from ~72 %).
• This risk-based adjustment provides a scientifically defensible rationale for reducing design storm requirements under moderate risk, preventing overdesign and offering economic benefits.

Contributions

• Development of RiskDRAIN, an innovative, accessible, and interactive web-based decision-support tool that bridges the gap between complex climate science and practical engineering design workflows for road drainage infrastructure.
• Integration of multi-model climate projections (CanDCS-M6, IDF-CC) with a comprehensive, user-configurable risk assessment framework that considers hazard, exposure, and multi-dimensional vulnerability.
• Explicitly addresses rainfall non-stationarity and inherent uncertainties in climate modeling, providing a robust platform for climate-resilient infrastructure planning.
• Offers a two-tiered decision support workflow (province-wide screening and site-specific refinement) to guide practitioners based on data availability and study objectives.
• Validated through a real-world case study, demonstrating its capacity to operationalize complex climate data for day-to-day engineering practice and support cost-effective design decisions.

Funding

• Financial and technical support from the Ministry of Transportation of Ontario through a grant.

Citation

@article{Fereshtehpour2026Development,
  author = {Fereshtehpour, Mohammad and Bashir, Rashid and Tandon, Neil F.},
  title = {Development of an interactive web-based tool for flood risk analysis and climate–resilient road drainage design: RiskDRAIN},
  journal = {Environmental Modelling & Software},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.106867},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2026.106867}
}