Wei et al. (2026) Unraveling drought impacts on winter wheat yield in the Yellow River Basin: A coupled drought index–crop modeling framework

Identification

• Journal: Agricultural Water Management
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-17
• Authors: Yingnan Wei, Zhijian He, Ning Yao, Ben Niu, Genghong Wu, Xiaotao Hu, La Zhuo, Hao Feng, Qiang Yu
• DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110643

Research Groups

• State Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation and Desertification Control, College of Soil and Water Conservation Science and Engineering, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China
• College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Key Lab of Agricultural Water and Soil Engineering of Education Ministry, Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China
• Institute of Arid Meteorology, CMA/ Key laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Disaster Reduction of CMA, China

Short Summary

This study integrates meteorological and soil moisture data to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of drought in the Yellow River Basin using non-stationary drought indices. The results show a declining trend in both NSPEI and SSI values over the study period, indicating an intensification of drought conditions.

Objective

• Investigate the impact of drought on winter wheat yield in the Yellow River Basin.
• Develop a coupled analytical framework to quantify drought-induced yield losses and unravel their underlying mechanisms.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is a core region for winter wheat production in China, covering an area of 7.95 × 105 km2.
• Temporal Scale: The study period spans from 1961 to 2021, with a focus on the winter wheat growing seasons from 1981 to 2021.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Non-stationary Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (NSPEI) and Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI).
• Data sources: Daily meteorological data, soil moisture data, and winter wheat phenological observations from the China Meteorological Data Service Center and Google Earth Engine.

Main Results

• The NSPEI values decreased with increasing time after considering non-stationarity, indicating a significant drought trend in the Yellow River Basin during 1961–2021.
• The SSI values showed a consistent trend toward increasing drought conditions at different soil layers.
• Deep-layer soil moisture (10–40 cm and 40–100 cm) deficit emerged as an important determinant of severe winter wheat yield reduction.

Contributions

• This study advances the mechanistic understanding of drought-yield relationships by integrating non-stationary climate indices with biophysical crop modeling.
• The framework provides actionable insights for drought monitoring, risk assessment, and mitigation strategies in semi-arid agricultural systems.

Funding

• Supported by projects from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 51879204, 51609215) and the Key Research Project of the Ministry of Water Resources of China (Grant No. 201501011).

Citation

@article{Wei2026Unraveling,
  author = {Wei, Yingnan and He, Zhijian and Yao, Ning and Niu, Ben and Wu, Genghong and Hu, Xiaotao and Zhuo, La and Feng, Hao and Yu, Qiang},
  title = {Unraveling drought impacts on winter wheat yield in the Yellow River Basin: A coupled drought index–crop modeling framework},
  journal = {Agricultural Water Management},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110643},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110643}
}