Lu et al. (2026) Study on dynamic change characteristics of shallow groundwater in arid and semi-arid areas: A case study in the Minqin Oasis, China

Identification

• Journal: Agricultural Water Management
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-07
• Authors: Zhao Lu, DaQing Wang, Jie Zhu, Hongfei Zhao, Yue Shi, Haoli Xu, Yong Huang, Jiazheng Zhao
• DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2025.110119

Research Groups

• Command and Control Engineering College, Army Engineering University of PLA, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
• Defense Engineering College, Army Engineering University of PLA, Nanjing, China
• PLA Unit 31605, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
• State Key Laboratory of Pulsed Power Laser College of Electronic Engineering, National University of Defense Technology, Hefei, China
• Key Laboratory of Tropical Marine Bio-resources and Ecology, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China
• Wuhu Environmental Supervision Detachment, Wuhu, China

Short Summary

This study investigates the spatial distribution, long-term trends (2004-2019), and influencing factors of shallow groundwater in the Minqin Oasis, China, using ordinary Kriging interpolation and principal component analysis. It reveals significant seasonal groundwater fluctuations and a mitigated long-term decline since 2004 with recovery after 2013, primarily influenced by agricultural water use, groundwater extraction, and surface water exploitation.

Objective

• To investigate the spatial distribution, long-term dynamic change characteristics (2004-2019), and key influencing factors of shallow groundwater in the Minqin Oasis, China, to provide technical support for the sustainable development and protection of groundwater resources in arid and semi-arid regions.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Minqin Oasis, Minqin County, Wuwei City, Gansu Province, China, covering an area of approximately 2100 km².
• Temporal Scale:
  • Groundwater depth data from civilian wells: Winter (January) and Summer (June) of 2019.
  • Continuous groundwater monitoring data from special observation wells: 2004–2019.
  • Groundwater recharge and discharge data: 2004–2019.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Ordinary Kriging interpolation (for spatial distribution of groundwater levels), with Gaussian function model selected as the optimal semivariogram.
  • Principal Component Analysis (PCA) (for identifying influencing factors).
  • Statistical methods (for temporal trend analysis).
• Data sources:
  • Groundwater depth measurements from 4065 civilian wells (2019).
  • Continuous groundwater monitoring data from 12 special observation wells (2004-2019).
  • Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data: ASTER GDEM V2 (from China Geospatial Data Cloud).
  • Groundwater recharge and discharge data: 'The Compilation of National Economic and Social Statistics of Minqin County' and field investigations.
  • Six specific indicators for PCA: agricultural water consumption, ecological water use, livestock water use, upstream water inflow, groundwater extraction, and total surface water withdrawal (2004-2019).

Main Results

• Groundwater Level Distribution (2019): Groundwater levels exhibited significant seasonal fluctuations, ranging from 1302–1434.5 m in winter and 1295–1425 m in summer. The highest levels were in the southwest (near Hongyashan Reservoir) and lowest in the northeast, with multiple groundwater depression funnels identified within the oasis. Monthly data showed levels generally high in February-March, declining until October, then recovering.
• Long-term Dynamic Change (2004-2019): The overall declining trend in shallow groundwater levels observed since 2004 was gradually mitigated, with most monitoring sites showing recovery since 2013, reaching a maximum rise rate of 0.397 m/year at one well. However, as of 2019, groundwater levels at approximately three-quarters of the observation wells remained below their 2004 levels, and a declining trend persisted at a few individual sites (e.g., Well No. 10 showed a maximum decline of 7.81 m).
• Influencing Factors: Principal Component Analysis identified total groundwater exploitation, total agricultural water consumption, and total surface water exploitation as the primary factors influencing shallow groundwater dynamics, collectively explaining over 90% of the variance. Reducing groundwater exploitation and agricultural water consumption, while increasing surface water exploitation (especially upstream inflow from the Shiyang River), were found to be beneficial for groundwater restoration.

Contributions

• Provided a detailed spatial distribution of groundwater levels using a large dataset of 4065 civilian wells, enhancing accuracy compared to previous studies relying on limited observation points.
• Conducted a comprehensive analysis of long-term groundwater dynamic changes from 2004 to 2019, addressing a gap in recent trend analysis for the region.
• Effectively identified and quantified the key anthropogenic and natural factors influencing shallow groundwater dynamics using Principal Component Analysis, offering a robust, less subjective approach.
• Delivered practical technical support and guidance for the sustainable management, utilization, and protection of groundwater resources in arid and semi-arid regions.

Funding

• China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (Grant Number: 2024M764333), awarded under the 76th Batch of General Funding.

Citation

@article{Lu2026Study,
  author = {Lu, Zhao and Wang, DaQing and Zhu, Jie and Zhao, Hongfei and Shi, Yue and Xu, Haoli and Huang, Yong and Zhao, Jiazheng},
  title = {Study on dynamic change characteristics of shallow groundwater in arid and semi-arid areas: A case study in the Minqin Oasis, China},
  journal = {Agricultural Water Management},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.agwat.2025.110119},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2025.110119}
}