Kazma et al. (2026) Exploring uncertainty propagation in coupled hydrologic and hydrodynamic systems via distribution-agnostic state space analysis

Identification

• Journal: Advances in Water Resources
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-06-23
• Authors: Mohamad H. Kazma, Ahmad F. Taha
• DOI: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2026.105389

Research Groups

• Vanderbilt University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering.

Short Summary

This paper presents a framework for quantifying the impact of uncertainties on hydrologic and hydrodynamic simulations via a state space approach based on differential algebraic equations (DAE) formulation. The proposed framework is distribution-agnostic and provides probabilistic estimates of watershed state conditions under partial measurements.

Objective

• To develop a unified coupled 2D hydrologic–hydrodynamic state space framework for real-time probabilistic monitoring of watershed conditions under partial gauging.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Distributed spatiotemporal dynamics over a 2D catchment domain.
• Temporal Scale: Short duration wet weather events, where rainfall, infiltration, and lateral routing dominate the water balance.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Differential algebraic equations (DAE) formulation of the coupled hydrologic and hydrodynamic dynamics adopted in HydroPol2D.
• Data sources: Rainfall intensity, topography, land cover, soil type, and initial conditions data.

Main Results

• The proposed framework provides probabilistic estimates of watershed state conditions under partial measurements.
• The framework is distribution-agnostic and requires only the means and variances of uncertain inputs and parameters.
• The case studies demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach in providing confidence-aware flood forecasts under uncertain rainfall and soil parameters.

Contributions

• A unified coupled 2D hydrologic–hydrodynamic state space framework for real-time probabilistic monitoring of watershed conditions under partial gauging.
• A distribution-agnostic framework that provides probabilistic estimates of watershed state conditions under partial measurements.

Funding

• This work is supported by the National Science Foundation, United States under Grants 2152450.

Citation

@article{Kazma2026Exploring,
  author = {Kazma, Mohamad H. and Taha, Ahmad F.},
  title = {Exploring uncertainty propagation in coupled hydrologic and hydrodynamic systems via distribution-agnostic state space analysis},
  journal = {Advances in Water Resources},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.advwatres.2026.105389},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2026.105389}
}