Shi et al. (2026) Climate warming alters snowmelt and rainfall-runoff partitioning in a cold-region headwater basin of Northwest China

Identification

• Journal: Environmental Earth Sciences
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-05
• Authors: Peijun Shi, Wuchao Yang, Zhi Li
• DOI: 10.1007/s12665-025-12770-8

Research Groups

• Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Ministry of Education, College of Ecology and Environment, Xinjiang University, China
• College of Natural Resources and Environment, Northwest A&F University, China

Short Summary

This study investigated the responses of streamflow components to future climate change (2021–2050) in the headwater catchment of the Manas River in Northwest China, projecting a 23 ± 7% increase in total streamflow with snowmelt runoff contribution rising from 41 ± 1% to 45 ± 3%, highlighting the need for adaptive water resource management.

Objective

• Project future streamflow variability by integrating trend-preserving bias-corrected Regional Climate Model (RCM) outputs with Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) simulations.
• Partition streamflow components (snowmelt runoff, rainfall runoff, baseflow) and explore their responses to climate change in the snowmelt-dominated Manas River basin.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Headwater catchment of the Manas River Basin, northern piedmont of Tianshan Mountains, Northwest China (above Hongshanzui hydrological station). The elevation ranges from 637 m to 5250 m.
• Temporal Scale:
  • Historical/Calibration/Validation Period: 1980–2005 (RCMs), 2001–2015 (SRM, observations).
  • Future Projection Period: 2021–2050.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) for streamflow simulation and component partitioning.
  • Five Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the CORDEX-East Asia project: YSU-RSM (RSM), RegCM4, SNU-MM5 (MM5), SNU-WRF (WRF), and HadGEM3-RA (HG3).
  • Trend-preserving bias correction method (Hempel et al. 2013) applied to RCM outputs.
• Data sources:
  • Monthly streamflow data: Hongshanzui hydrological station.
  • Daily precipitation and temperature data (1980–2005): China Meteorological Administration (CMA).
  • 8-day 500-meter snow cover product (MOD10A2): National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC).
  • Climate projections (historical 1980–2005, future 2021–2050 under Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5): CORDEX-EA dataset (Korea Meteorological Administration).
  • Corrected precipitation and temperature data: Zenodo (doi:10.5281/zenodo.5058620).

Main Results

• Climate projections for 2021–2050 indicate a pronounced shift towards warmer and wetter conditions, with mean annual precipitation increasing by 20 ± 30% and mean annual temperature rising by 2.1 ± 0.6 °C (maximum) and 2.5 ± 0.7 °C (minimum).
• Enhanced interannual variability for both precipitation (variance ratio 1.4 ± 0.4) and temperature (maximum 1.1 ± 0.3, minimum 1.2 ± 0.3) suggests an increased probability of extreme weather events.
• Total streamflow is projected to increase by 23 ± 7%, with maximum streamflow increasing by 29 ± 8% and minimum streamflow by 18 ± 5%, alongside elevated hydrological variability (variance ratio = 1.4).
• Streamflow exhibits larger seasonal variations in spring and autumn compared to winter and summer.
• The contribution of snowmelt runoff to total streamflow is projected to increase from 41 ± 1% (historical) to 45 ± 3% (future), particularly under the higher emissions scenario (RCP8.5) where it reaches 47%.
• Rainfall runoff contribution shows scenario-dependent trends, increasing from 29 ± 2% (historical) to 34 ± 5% under RCP4.5, but declining to 28 ± 3% under RCP8.5.
• Future streamflow changes are primarily governed by meltwater and glacial runoff rather than precipitation-derived runoff, especially under higher emissions.

Contributions

• Provides a systematic assessment of streamflow component responses to future climate change in a cold and arid headwater basin in Northwest China.
• Integrates trend-preserving bias-corrected Regional Climate Model (RCM) outputs with Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) simulations to project future streamflow variability.
• Quantifies the individual contributions of snowmelt runoff, rainfall runoff, and baseflow to total streamflow and their projected changes under different climate scenarios.
• Offers critical insights for developing adaptive water resource management strategies to enhance resilience in snowmelt-dependent, arid regions under a changing climate.

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (42071043 and 32401348)
• Talent Program of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (5105240150b)

Citation

@article{Shi2026Climate,
  author = {Shi, Peijun and Yang, Wuchao and Li, Zhi},
  title = {Climate warming alters snowmelt and rainfall-runoff partitioning in a cold-region headwater basin of Northwest China},
  journal = {Environmental Earth Sciences},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1007/s12665-025-12770-8},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-025-12770-8}
}