Marwade et al. (2026) Subdistrict-level drought assessment of agricultural lands in Vidarbha, Maharashtra, India using remote sensing-based indices

Identification

• Journal: Theoretical and Applied Climatology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-10
• Authors: Anurag Marwade, Amit G. Dhorde, Swapnil Vyas
• DOI: 10.1007/s00704-025-05991-1

Research Groups

• Department of Geography, Savitribai Phule Pune University, Pune, Maharashtra, India

Short Summary

This study assessed agricultural drought and crop health at the sub-district level in Vidarbha, India, from 2006 to 2021 using remote sensing-based Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), and Vegetation Condition Index (VCI). It found overall positive trends in vegetation health and moisture, particularly during the rabi season, despite recurring drought risks.

Objective

• To evaluate crop health and assess agricultural drought conditions at the sub-district level in Vidarbha, Maharashtra, India, by analyzing spatiotemporal variations and trends of remote sensing-based Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), and Vegetation Condition Index (VCI).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Vidarbha region, Maharashtra, India, covering 97,950 square kilometers, comprising 11 districts and 120 sub-districts (tehsils). Analysis was conducted at the sub-district level.
• Temporal Scale: Monthly, seasonal (kharif and rabi), and annual analysis from 2006 to 2021 (15 years).

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)
  • Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI)
  • Vegetation Condition Index (VCI)
  • Linear regression for trend analysis
  • Mann-Kendall test for non-parametric trend analysis
  • Pearson correlation coefficient for bivariate relationships
• Data sources:
  • Mahalanobis National Crop Forecast Centre (MNCFC), Department of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmers Welfare, Government of India.
  • MNCFC’s National Agricultural Drought Assessment and Monitoring System (NADAMS) portal.
  • Satellite data: RESOURCE SAT 2 - AwiFS composite data and TERRA MODIS VI product (MOD13Q1) 16-day composite data at 250 meters spatial resolution for NDVI and NDWI.
  • District-level crop production statistics from data.gov.in.

Main Results

• NDVI and NDWI values generally increased from June to October, then subsided, with vegetation showing a lagged response to rainfall (NDVI peaking in September while rainfall peaked in July).
• The kharif season typically supported healthier vegetation cover compared to the rabi season, highlighting the strong influence of seasonal monsoon rainfall.
• Rabi seasons of 2013-14, 2016-17, 2017-18, 2019-20, and 2020-21 exhibited relatively higher NDWI values, consistent with enhanced NDVI, underscoring a strong linkage between vegetation health and water availability.
• A strong and significant (p < 0.01) positive correlation was observed between NDVI and NDWI during July and September in the kharif season.
• VCI analysis revealed severe drought conditions during the rabi season in 2006-07, 2007-08, 2008-09, 2011-12, 2012-13, 2015-16, and 2018-19.
• Trend analysis using linear regression and the Mann-Kendall test indicated overall positive trends in NDVI and NDWI across most tehsils, particularly during the rabi season, suggesting improvements in crop health over the 15-year period.
  • For rabi NDVI, 41 tehsils showed a statistically significant increase at the 99% confidence level, 28 at 95%, and 11 at 90%.
  • For rabi NDWI, 49 tehsils showed a statistically significant increase at the 99% confidence level, 37 at 95%, and 18 at 90%.
  • For rabi VCI, 11 tehsils showed a statistically significant increase at the 99% confidence level, 35 at 95%, and 9 at 90%.
• Kharif season trends were more mixed, with some tehsils showing significant decreases in NDVI and NDWI (e.g., Mauda and Ashti tehsils).

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive sub-district level assessment of agricultural drought and crop health trends in the Vidarbha region of Maharashtra, India, over a 15-year period using multiple remote sensing indices.
• Identifies an overall positive trend in vegetation health and moisture content, particularly during the rabi season, in a traditionally water-stressed region, offering valuable insights for regional drought monitoring and management strategies.
• Highlights the importance of remote sensing-based indices for timely and accurate crop health monitoring to mitigate agricultural drought impacts at a fine spatial scale.

Funding

• No funding was received for conducting this study.

Citation

@article{Marwade2026Subdistrictlevel,
  author = {Marwade, Anurag and Dhorde, Amit G. and Vyas, Swapnil},
  title = {Subdistrict-level drought assessment of agricultural lands in Vidarbha, Maharashtra, India using remote sensing-based indices},
  journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1007/s00704-025-05991-1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-025-05991-1}
}