Grenzi et al. (2026) Enhancing severe convection forecasts with microwave radiance assimilation in limited‐area models

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Identification

• Journal: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-30
• Authors: Marcello Grenzi, Thomas Gastaldo, Virginia Poli, Chiara Marsigli, Tijana Janjić, Alberto Carrassi
• DOI: 10.1002/qj.70296

Research Groups

• Arpae Emilia-Romagna
• ItaliaMeteo
• University/Research Institution (not specified)

Short Summary

This study demonstrates the benefits of assimilating satellite radiances, particularly microwave water-vapour channels and all-sky infrared radiances, in convection-permitting limited-area models for forecasting severe precipitation.

Objective

• Investigate the impact of assimilating clear-sky microwave water-vapour channels from MHS and all-sky infrared radiances from SEVIRI on intense convection forecasting.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional (Italy) at 2.2-km resolution using ICON-2I model.
• Temporal Scale: Real-time forecasting with a focus on the severe convective event of September 15, 2022.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic model (ICON) coupled to the local ensemble transform Kalman filter.
• Data sources: Satellite radiances from MHS (microwave water-vapour channels) and SEVIRI (all-sky infrared), conventional data, and radar data.

Main Results

• Joint assimilation of MHS and SEVIRI radiances yields the best performance in forecasting precipitation for the Marche event.
• Inspection of forecast initial conditions shows consistent modifications to the pre-convective atmospheric state with increased low-to-mid-tropospheric humidity favouring deep convection.
• Partial analysis increments algorithm highlights the complementary impact of MHS and SEVIRI throughout the troposphere.

Contributions

• This study demonstrates the value of assimilating satellite radiances in convection-permitting LAMs for forecasting severe precipitation, highlighting the potential benefits of using microwave water-vapour channels and all-sky infrared radiances.
• The results motivate the operational introduction of satellite radiances in the Arpae Emilia-Romagna and ItaliaMeteo systems.

Funding

• Not specified.

Citation

@article{Grenzi2026Enhancing,
  author = {Grenzi, Marcello and Gastaldo, Thomas and Poli, Virginia and Marsigli, Chiara and Janjić, Tijana and Carrassi, Alberto},
  title = {Enhancing severe convection forecasts with microwave radiance assimilation in limited‐area models},
  journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/qj.70296},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.70296}
}