Silva et al. (2026) Spatiotemporal Variability of Precipitation in Serbia (1961–2020) Using Innovative Polygon‐Based Trend Methods

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-10-24
• Authors: Antônio Samuel Alves da Silva, Ivana A. Tošić, Tatijana Stošić, Vladimir Djurdjević, Borko D Stosic
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70635

Research Groups

Not explicitly stated in the provided abstract.

Short Summary

This study investigates long-term monthly precipitation variability and month-to-month transitions across Serbia from 1961–2020 using Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) and Trend Polygon Star Concept (TPSC). The research reveals coherent seasonal precipitation changes, including wetting in spring and drying in winter, demonstrating that these polygon-based methods offer a more detailed understanding of the annual precipitation cycle than conventional trend analyses.

Objective

• To investigate monthly precipitation variability and changes in month-to-month precipitation transitions across Serbia during 1961–2020.
• To characterise trends in mean monthly precipitation and changes in the internal structure of the annual precipitation cycle using polygon-based methods.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Serbia (regional scale, with specific mentions of Novi Sad, Belgrade, Niš).
• Temporal Scale: 1961–2020 (60 years), with two subperiods (1961–1990 and 1991–2020) for transition analysis. Monthly precipitation variability.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA), Trend Polygon Star Concept (TPSC), Modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) test.
• Data sources: Observational precipitation data from stations across Serbia.

Main Results

• Coherent seasonal precipitation changes were observed across Serbia.
• IPTA identified widespread increasing trends during September and October, and predominantly decreasing trends in November.
• TPSC showed consistent wetting tendencies during spring and drying tendencies during winter.
• IPTA demonstrated higher sensitivity to subtle precipitation changes compared to the MMK test, identifying additional weak regional trends.
• Novi Sad consistently displayed increasing trends across all months.
• Belgrade exhibited the most stable precipitation regime, with the largest transition magnitude observed between June and July (37.64 mm).
• Most stations showed maximum trend lengths between April and May, and minimum values between January and February.
• The highest trend slope occurred between August and September in Niš (20.23 mm).

Contributions

• Introduces and applies polygon-based methods (IPTA and TPSC) to complement conventional trend analyses.
• Reveals changes in the internal structure of the annual precipitation cycle and transitions between consecutive months that are often hidden in traditional statistical approaches.
• Provides a comprehensive characterisation of seasonal precipitation dynamics.
• Offers a useful and sensitive tool for hydro-climatological investigations of regional climate variability.

Funding

Not explicitly stated in the provided abstract.

Citation

@article{Silva2026Spatiotemporal,
  author = {Silva, Antônio Samuel Alves da and Tošić, Ivana A. and Stošić, Tatijana and Djurdjević, Vladimir and Stosic, Borko D},
  title = {Spatiotemporal Variability of Precipitation in Serbia (1961–2020) Using Innovative Polygon‐Based Trend Methods},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70635},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70635}
}