Bandar et al. (2026) Long‐Term Changes in the Relative Contribution of Mediterranean Cyclones and Sudanese Lows to Precipitation Over Iraq (1954–2023)

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Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-16
• Authors: Qusay Kazim Aliwi Bandar, Khamis Daham Muslih
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70555

Research Groups

• Department of Meteorology, University of Baghdad
• Climate Change Research Group, Iraqi Ministry of Science and Technology

Short Summary

This study examines the long-term trends in precipitation variability over Iraq driven by Mediterranean cyclone days and Sudanese low days, revealing a significant decrease in frequency and precipitation contributions of Mediterranean cyclones.

Objective

• Investigate the impact of synoptic systems on precipitation variability in Iraq's transitional climate zone.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: National scale, covering all parts of Iraq.
• Temporal Scale: 1954–2023, a period of 70 years.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for identifying synoptic systems.
• Data sources: Reanalysis data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).

Main Results

• Significant decrease in frequency and precipitation contributions of Mediterranean cyclone days over all parts of Iraq.
• Increase in frequency and growing precipitation contributions of Sudanese low days.
• Overall decline in total precipitation due to reduced precipitation efficiency associated with Mediterranean cyclones.

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the structural reorganization of synoptic drivers across Iraq's transitional climate zone, shedding light on drought risk and water resource management in the region.

Funding

• Funded by the Iraqi Ministry of Science and Technology (project code: MST/CCRG/2020)

Citation

@article{Bandar2026LongTerm,
  author = {Bandar, Qusay Kazim Aliwi and Muslih, Khamis Daham},
  title = {Long‐Term Changes in the Relative Contribution of Mediterranean Cyclones and Sudanese Lows to Precipitation Over Iraq (1954–2023)},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70555},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70555}
}