Deagosto et al. (2026) Climatological Analysis of the 2022–2023 Unprecedented Dry Period in Southwestern Uruguay

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-06
• Authors: Emilio Deagosto, Marcelo Barreiro
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70260

Research Groups

Not explicitly mentioned in the abstract.

Short Summary

This study conducts a climatological analysis of the unprecedented 2022-2023 rainfall deficit in Uruguay, identifying its features, drivers, and historical context. It reveals that while La Niña favors dry conditions, the largest deficits are multifactorial, involving ENSO, SAM, MJO, surface-atmosphere interactions, land-use change, and likely human-induced global warming.

Objective

• To conduct a climatological analysis of the unprecedented 2022-2023 rainfall deficit in Uruguay, exploring its major features and climate drivers, and comparing it with other comparable periods in the historical data record.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Uruguay, southeastern South America.
• Temporal Scale: June 2022 to May 2023 (unprecedented deficit), 2019–2023 (broader drought context), 12-month time windows between June to May (for ENSO correlation), 1962–2023 (historical comparison of dry periods).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Not explicitly mentioned in the abstract.
• Data sources: Not explicitly mentioned in the abstract, but implies climatological analysis of historical observational data records.

Main Results

• Uruguay experienced an unprecedented rainfall deficit from June 2022 to May 2023, notable for its magnitude, spatial pattern, and socioeconomic impacts.
• The occurrence of dry and wet periods in Uruguay is correlated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) when considering 12-month time windows between June to May.
• La Niña creates favorable large-scale and local circulation patterns for reduced rainfall in Uruguay.
• The largest rainfall deficits, including the 2022–2023 event, have not always been associated with strong La Niña years, indicating a complex and multifactorial nature of drought processes.
• Various configurations of climate anomaly patterns can lead to prolonged rainfall deficits of similar magnitude but differing spatial distribution across southeastern South America.
• Differences among dry periods analyzed between 1962 and 2023 are attributed to seasonal and subseasonal influences of other climate modes, such as the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), modulating ENSO impacts.
• Surface–atmosphere interactions and land-use change likely contributed to the exceptional 2022–2023 rainfall deficit.
• Human-induced global warming likely exacerbated this exceptional deficit, despite the significant role of natural variability.

Contributions

• Provides a detailed climatological analysis of an unprecedented and high-impact rainfall deficit event in Uruguay (2022-2023).
• Highlights the complex, multifactorial nature of drought drivers in southeastern South America, extending beyond simple strong ENSO associations.
• Identifies the modulating roles of other climate modes (SAM, MJO), surface-atmosphere interactions, and land-use change in shaping drought characteristics.
• Reinforces the likely exacerbating effect of human-induced global warming on extreme rainfall deficits in the region.

Funding

Not explicitly mentioned in the abstract.

Citation

@article{Deagosto2026Climatological,
  author = {Deagosto, Emilio and Barreiro, Marcelo},
  title = {Climatological Analysis of the 2022–2023 Unprecedented Dry Period in Southwestern Uruguay},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70260},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70260}
}