Gao et al. (2026) Summer Precipitation Long‐Term Changes at Different Intensities in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region From 1961 to 2014 and Simulation Performance Evaluation of CMIP6 Models

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Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-07
• Authors: Nan Gao, Liwei Huo, Ji Wang, Xiaoxiao Zhang, Tiejun Xie, Jing‐Jia Luo
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70222

Research Groups

Not explicitly stated in the abstract.

Short Summary

This study analyzes spatiotemporal variations in summer precipitation days across different intensity levels in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region using observational data and CMIP6 models, finding strong seasonality dominated by light rain and evaluating CMIP6 model performance and biases.

Objective

• To examine spatiotemporal variations in summer precipitation days across intensity levels in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region.
• To evaluate the simulation performance of 14 high-resolution CMIP6 models for summer precipitation days and intensity levels in the BTH region.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region.
• Temporal Scale: 1961–2014 (54 years) for observations; historical simulations for CMIP6 models (covering a similar period). Summer (June–August) is the focus.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: 14 high-resolution CMIP6 historical simulations (e.g., EC-Earth3, EC-Earth3-Veg).
• Data sources: CN05.1 daily gridded precipitation data (observational).

Main Results

• Summer (June–August) exhibits strong precipitation seasonality, with rainfall decreasing from southeast to northwest in the BTH region.
• Light rain dominates summer precipitation, accounting for 50.35% of total precipitation and 88.43% of rainy days.
• Light rain days show 'decreasing–increasing' temporal patterns, moderate rain days exhibit 'increasing–decreasing' trends, and heavy-to-torrential rain days generally decline.
• Spatially, light rain days show marked regional variations, moderate rain days display a regional 'increasing–decreasing' pattern, and heavy-to-torrential rain days remain relatively stable.
• CMIP6 models show varying performance in simulating precipitation days and intensity levels; EC-Earth3 and EC-Earth3-Veg perform best across intensities.
• Most CMIP6 models accurately simulate moderate rain days but perform poorer for light and heavy-to-torrential rain days.
• The ensemble mean of the best-performing models for heavy-to-torrential rain shows superior spatial agreement with observations.
• The multi-model ensemble mean exhibits biases: overestimating total precipitation amounts while underestimating total and light rain days, and overestimating moderate and heavy-to-torrential rain days.

Contributions

• Provides a detailed analysis of spatiotemporal variations and trends of summer precipitation days across different intensity levels in the BTH region.
• Offers a comprehensive evaluation of 14 high-resolution CMIP6 models' ability to simulate summer precipitation characteristics in the BTH region.
• Identifies the best-performing CMIP6 models (EC-Earth3, EC-Earth3-Veg) for the region and highlights specific biases in the multi-model ensemble mean.
• Contributes to understanding regional climate model performance and improving future projections for precipitation in the BTH region.

Funding

Not explicitly stated in the abstract.

Citation

@article{Gao2026Summer,
  author = {Gao, Nan and Huo, Liwei and Wang, Ji and Zhang, Xiaoxiao and Xie, Tiejun and Luo, Jing‐Jia},
  title = {Summer Precipitation Long‐Term Changes at Different Intensities in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region From 1961 to 2014 and Simulation Performance Evaluation of <scp>CMIP6</scp> Models},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70222},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70222}
}