Lakatos et al. (2025) Extreme weather risks for European agriculture (1981–2020): A quantitative review using the E3CI

Identification

• Journal: The Science of The Total Environment
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-10-08
• Authors: L. Lakatos, Kitti Edina Csabai
• DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.180641

Research Groups

• Department of Environmental Science and Landscape Ecology, Eszterh´azy K´aroly Catholic University, Hungary

Short Summary

This study provides the first pan-European, multi-hazard assessment of agricultural climate risks during the growing season (1981–2020) using the European Extreme Events Climate Index (E3CI), revealing significant increases in extreme warm events, drought, and wildfire risk, with distinct zonal and meridional spatial patterns across Europe.

Objective

• To identify long-term trends in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events during the agricultural growing season (April–October).
• To evaluate spatial disparities along zonal (west–east) and meridional (north–south) climatic gradients.
• To analyse the spatiotemporal dynamics of seven significant hazard types using harmonised data from the European Extreme Events Climate Index (E3CI) for 39 countries (1981–2020).
• To explore the implications for agricultural resilience, insurance systems, and climate adaptation strategies.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Pan-European, covering 39 European countries, with analysis of zonal (west–east) and meridional (north–south) gradients.
• Temporal Scale: 1981–2020, focusing on the agricultural growing season (April–October). Changes were quantified using an endpoint decadal contrast (Δ = 2011–2020 − 1981–1990).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: European Extreme Events Climate Index (E3CI), a composite indicator of seven hazards (Warm, Cool, Drought, Fire, Hail, Precipitation, Wind).
• Data sources: E3CI dataset, derived from ERA5 reanalysis and Copernicus satellite products (Copernicus Climate Change Service – C3S, 2020). External validation used national meteorological bulletins, satellite-based climate summaries, and regional reports/event archives.

Main Results

• Warm Extremes: The share of growing seasons with extreme warm events rose from 6 % to 74 % (a 12-fold increase) between 1981–1990 and 2011–2020, with significant increases in frequency and severity across approximately 97 % of European countries.
• Cool Extremes: The share of growing seasons with extreme cool events declined from 31 % to 12 %, with a general decrease in severity, particularly in Western and Southern Europe.
• Drought: Frequency increased from 8 to 13 cases per decade, and cumulative severity increased from 11 to 22 index units per decade. Robust signals were observed in Eastern and Southern Europe, affecting approximately 21 % of countries.
• Fire: Frequency increased from 3 to 12 cases per decade, and cumulative severity rose sharply from 5 to 117 index units per decade. Widespread significant increases were noted, particularly in the Mediterranean and Balkans (up to 66.7 % of countries for severity).
• Precipitation: Cumulative severity increased from 8 to 22 index units per decade, with intensification observed across Europe, especially in Central and Southern regions.
• Hail and Wind: These hazards showed more sporadic or non-significant changes in frequency and severity across Europe, though wind severity showed significance in 30.8 % of countries.
• Spatial Gradients:
  • Zonal (West–East): Western Europe experienced larger increases in Warm, Cool, and Wind extremes, while Eastern Europe showed stronger rises in Drought, Heavy Precipitation, Hail, and Fire.
  • Meridional (North–South): Northern Europe saw relatively larger increases in Drought and Hail, whereas Southern Europe was more affected by Warm, Fire, and Heavy Precipitation.
• Distributional Changes: Warm, Drought, and Fire events exhibited upward shifts in their distributions with wider interquartile ranges and heavier upper tails, indicating increased intensity and variability. Cool extremes showed reduced variability.

Contributions

• Provides the first pan-European, multi-hazard assessment of agricultural climate risks during the growing season using the E3CI.
• Applies the E3CI for the first time in a continent-wide agricultural risk assessment, offering a novel and reproducible framework.
• Addresses a critical knowledge gap in harmonised, long-term synthesis of agroclimatic extremes across Europe.
• Offers actionable insights for climate modelling, environmental governance, and socioeconomic planning by identifying consistent spatiotemporal hazard patterns and supporting risk mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Funding

This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

Citation

@article{Lakatos2025Extreme,
  author = {Lakatos, L. and Csabai, Kitti Edina},
  title = {Extreme weather risks for European agriculture (1981–2020): A quantitative review using the E3CI},
  journal = {The Science of The Total Environment},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.180641},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.180641}
}