Khandandel et al. (2025) A shift towards temperature-dominated droughts in agricultural basins of Türkiye

Identification

• Journal: Natural Hazards
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-09-08
• Authors: Mohammadreza Khandandel, Nadım K. Copty, İrem Daloğlu Çetinkaya
• DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07633-1

Research Groups

• Institute of Environmental Sciences, Boğaziçi University, Istanbul, Turkey

Short Summary

This study projects future drought characteristics in Türkiye's agricultural basins using climate models and drought indices, revealing an intensification of drought frequency and severity driven primarily by rising temperatures, shifting from precipitation-deficit to temperature-dominated droughts.

Objective

• To explore the impact of climate change projections on drought occurrences in different agricultural regions of Türkiye and assess future drought characteristics compared to historical conditions.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Agricultural basins of Türkiye, with particular focus on southern and central regions.
• Temporal Scale: Historical period (baseline for comparison) and future projections until the end of the 21st century (up to 2100).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: 16 climate model projections (likely from EURO-CORDEX, given the data source).
• Data sources: Climate projection data from EURO-CORDEX (https://www.euro-cordex.net/). Drought indices calculated include Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and Aridity Index (AI). Bias correction code from CMHYD (https://swat.tamu.edu/software/cmhyd/). Statistical analyses included Mann-Kendall test, Fisher and Eigen methods, and one-sided t-test.

Main Results

• Precipitation projections do not show a clear trend in the coming decades for Türkiye.
• The frequency and severity of droughts are projected to intensify, particularly in the southern and central regions.
• This intensification is primarily attributed to projected increases in temperature.
• Statistical analyses of SPI and SPEI indicate a significant increase in the projected number of drought and extreme drought events.
• The SPEI shows a more pronounced increase in drought events compared to SPI, highlighting a shift from traditional precipitation deficit to temperature-dominated droughts.
• Climate projections are also likely to induce changes in climate classification across the region.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive assessment of future drought characteristics in Türkiye's agricultural basins under climate change, emphasizing the critical role of temperature.
• Identifies a significant shift towards temperature-dominated droughts, offering novel insights into regional drought drivers.
• Underlines the urgent need for effective drought monitoring strategies and adaptation measures for water resources and agricultural production in Türkiye and the broader Mediterranean region.

Funding

• InTheMED project (grant agreement No 1923)
• OurMED project (grant agreement No 2222)
• Both projects are part of the PRIMA programme supported by the European Union’s HORIZON 2020 research and innovation programme.

Citation

@article{Khandandel2025shift,
  author = {Khandandel, Mohammadreza and Copty, Nadım K. and Çetinkaya, İrem Daloğlu},
  title = {A shift towards temperature-dominated droughts in agricultural basins of Türkiye},
  journal = {Natural Hazards},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1007/s11069-025-07633-1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-025-07633-1}
}