Vicente‐Serrano et al. (2025) Characteristics of widespread extreme precipitation events in Peninsular Spain and the Balearic Islands: spatio-temporal dynamics and driving mechanisms

Identification

• Journal: Climate Dynamics
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-08-30
• Authors: Sergio M. Vicente‐Serrano, José M. Garrido‐Pérez, José C. Fernández‐Alvarez, Luis Gimeno‐Sotelo, Santiago Beguerı́a, Amar Halifa‐Marín, Borja Latorre, Ahmed El Kenawy, Magí Franquesa, María Adell-Michavila, Fernando Domínguez‐Castro, David Barriopedro, Luis Gimeno-Presa, César Azorín-Molina, Miguel Andres‐Martin, José Manuel Gutiérrez, Ricardo García‐Herrera
• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-025-07829-y

Research Groups

• Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (IPE-CSIC), Zaragoza, Spain
• Laboratorio de Climatología y Servicios Climáticos (LCSC), CSIC-University of Zaragoza, Zaragoza, Spain
• Departamento de Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
• Galicia Supercomputing Center (CESGA), Santiago de Compostela, Spain
• Centro de Investigación Mariña, Environmental Physics Laboratory (EPhysLab), Universidade de Vigo, Ourense, Spain
• Departamento de Estatística e Investigação Operacional, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal
• CEAUL - Centro de Estatística e Aplicações, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal
• Estación Experimental de Aula Dei, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas EEAD-CSIC, Zaragoza, Spain
• Instituto de Geociencias (CSIC-UCM), Madrid, Spain
• Unidad Asociada, CSIC-Universidad de Vigo: Grupo de Física de la Atmósfera y del Océano, Pontevedra, Spain
• Centro de Investigaciones sobre Desertificación, Climate, Atmosphere and Ocean Laboratory (Climatoc-Lab), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CIDE, CSIC-UV-Generalitat Valenciana), Moncada, Valencia, Spain
• Instituto de Física de Cantabria, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (IFCA-CSIC), Santander, Spain

Short Summary

This study investigates the spatiotemporal trends and atmospheric drivers of widespread extreme precipitation events (WEPEs) in Spain from 1961 to 2022. It finds no significant trend in WEPE frequency or intensity, but identifies five distinct synoptic patterns and associated moisture sources that govern their regional distribution.

Objective

• To comprehensively assess the spatial and temporal variability of widespread extreme precipitation events (WEPEs) across Peninsular Spain and the Balearic Islands, and to identify their driving atmospheric mechanisms and moisture sources.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Peninsular Spain and the Balearic Islands.
• Temporal Scale: 1961–2022 for precipitation records and main atmospheric circulation analysis; 1980/1981–2022 for vertically-integrated moisture transport, water vapor, vertical velocity, and moisture source analysis.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • FLEXible PARTicle dispersion model (FLEXPARTv10.4)
  • TRansport Of water Vapour (TROVAv1.0) software (for FLEXPART post-processing)
  • T-mode Principal Component Analysis (PCA)
  • Mann-Kendall test (for trend analysis)
• Data sources:
  • High-density network of 2292 daily precipitation stations from the Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET).
  • ERA5 reanalysis (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts - ECMWF) for:
    • Daily geopotential height at 500 hPa (Z500)
    • Zonal and meridional wind at 850 hPa
    • Zonal wind at 925–700 hPa (for North Atlantic eddy-driven jet - EDJ characterization)
    • Precipitation, vertically-integrated horizontal moisture transport (IVT), vertically-integrated water vapor (IWV), and vertical velocity at 500 hPa (0.5° resolution).

Main Results

• Widespread extreme precipitation events (WEPEs) in Spain showed a non-significant trend in both frequency and intensity from 1961 to 2022.
• No days were recorded where more than 25% of Spain experienced precipitation above the 99th percentile, indicating that WEPEs typically affect limited areas.
• Principal Component Analysis (PCA) identified three dominant spatial patterns, accounting for 51.1% of the total variance, which were further categorized into five distinct spatial configurations of WEPEs.
• Five distinct synoptic patterns and their associated drivers were identified:
  1. Atlantic Low Pattern (Component 1 Positive): Characterized by a low-pressure system northwest of the Iberian Peninsula and a southward-displaced, intensified North Atlantic eddy-driven jet (around 40°N), leading to widespread precipitation in northern and western Spain. The primary moisture source is the Atlantic Ocean.
  2. Cut-off Low Pattern (Component 1 Negative): Associated with a positive geopotential height anomaly over northern Europe and a cyclonic system over Morocco, resulting in intense but more localized precipitation in eastern Iberia. This pattern is linked to high atmospheric instability over the Mediterranean Sea, with moisture primarily from the Iberian Peninsula and western Mediterranean.
  3. Latitudinal Dipole Pattern (Component 2 Positive): Features a low-pressure system over Spain and a high-pressure block over the North Atlantic, inducing a wavy jet configuration and precipitation in northern Spain, driven by moisture advection in the west and orographic/instability effects in the eastern Pyrenees. Moisture originates from southern/eastern Iberia, the Mediterranean, and the North Atlantic.
  4. Southern Mixed Regime (Component 2 Negative): Varies seasonally; in winter, a high-latitude blocking pattern and a southward-displaced, zonal jet (around 30°N) are observed, while in autumn, a cut-off low southwest of Iberia dominates. Both lead to precipitation concentrated over southern Iberia, with moisture transported from the Atlantic.
  5. Iberian Low Pattern (Component 3 Positive): Defined by a deep low-pressure anomaly over Iberia and a weak high-pressure anomaly over the Atlantic, promoting southerly moisture transport from the North Atlantic near Portugal and concentrating precipitation in a central longitudinal band across Spain.
• Jet stream anomalies play a crucial role: southward displacements of the Polar Jet Stream are linked to widespread precipitation in western Spain, while northward shifts are associated with events in the Mediterranean region.
• Moisture source anomalies are critical, with Atlantic moisture being key for western events and Mediterranean/continental moisture for eastern events.

Contributions

• Provides the first comprehensive, multidecadal assessment of widespread extreme precipitation events (WEPEs) across the entirety of Spain, utilizing a high-density daily precipitation network.
• Introduces a novel methodology to overcome limitations in trend assessment for extreme events, particularly regarding spatial randomness and low frequency.
• Identifies and characterizes five distinct atmospheric circulation patterns and their associated moisture sources that drive WEPEs, offering a nuanced understanding of their spatial distribution.
• Examines the influence of jet stream anomalies on WEPEs in Spain for the first time, linking specific jet configurations to regional precipitation patterns.
• Emphasizes the critical importance of distinguishing between widespread and localized extreme events, as their future changes are likely to depend on both global thermodynamic influences and specific regional atmospheric dynamics.

Funding

• Research projects TED2021-129152B-C41 and PID2022-137244OB-I00 (Spanish Ministry of Science and FEDER)
• MEHYDRO (LINKB20080) (i-LINK 2021 programme by CSIC)
• CSIC’s Interdisciplinary Thematic Platform Clima (PTI-Clima)
• Contract CSC2023-02-00 (Ministry for the Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge (MITECO) and European Commission NextGenerationEU (Regulation EU 2020/2094))
• Postdoctoral contract IN606B-2024.16 (Xunta de Galicia)
• Projects PID2021-122314OB-I00 and TED2021-129152B-C43 (Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades, Spain (MICIU/AEI/https://doi.org/10.13039/501100011033))
• Grant ED431C2021/44 (Xunta de Galicia; Programa de Consolidación e Estructuración de Unidades de Investigación Competitivas (Grupos de Referencia Competitiva), Consellería de Cultura, Educación e Universidade)
• European Commission ‘ERDF A way of making Europe’ program and “NextGenerationEU”/PRTR
• RED-CLIMA 2 project (CSIC, Ref. LINCG24042)
• PROMETEO Grant CIPROM/2023/38 (GVA)
• National funds through FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia under the project UIDB/00006/2020, https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDB/00006/2020, and project UID/00006/2025.
• CRUE-CSIC agreement with Springer Nature (Open Access funding)

Citation

@article{VicenteSerrano2025Characteristics,
  author = {Vicente‐Serrano, Sergio M. and Garrido‐Pérez, José M. and Fernández‐Alvarez, José C. and Gimeno‐Sotelo, Luis and Beguerı́a, Santiago and Halifa‐Marín, Amar and Latorre, Borja and Kenawy, Ahmed El and Franquesa, Magí and Adell-Michavila, María and Domínguez‐Castro, Fernando and Barriopedro, David and Gimeno-Presa, Luis and Nieto, Raquel and Azorín-Molina, César and Andres‐Martin, Miguel and Gutiérrez, José Manuel and García‐Herrera, Ricardo},
  title = {Characteristics of widespread extreme precipitation events in Peninsular Spain and the Balearic Islands: spatio-temporal dynamics and driving mechanisms},
  journal = {Climate Dynamics},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1007/s00382-025-07829-y},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07829-y}
}